Serie A · Gameweek 11 · Archived pre-match analysis
Napoli 1–1 Lazio
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Napoli 44.2%
Serie A online record: 33 of 50 most likely results correct (66%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 23/50 (46%). Napoli: 2 of 5. Lazio: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Draw a 27.0% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Napoli. The result did not match that outcome. The final score ranked #1 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 07:50 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Napoli are 10th with 14 points after 10 matches, while Lazio lead Serie A with 28 points. Napoli’s recent form is LWDLW, compared with Lazio’s WWWWW. Napoli lead the head-to-head record with 19 wins to Lazio’s 11 across 38 meetings, but Lazio won the last meeting 2-0 on 18 Apr 2026. At home, Napoli have 2 wins from 4; Lazio have won all 5 away matches.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Napoli at home
4 played · 2W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Roma · 3–3 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Frosinone · 3–0 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Bologna · 1–0 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Como · 1–2 (L)
Lazio away
4 played · 4W · 0D · 0L
Goals per match: 3.3 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 27 Oct 2026 · Sassuolo · 6–2 (W)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Juventus · 3–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Venezia · 2–0 (W)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Udinese · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Napoli vs Lazio: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45.0%Under 55.0%
- Both teams score
- 49.8%No 50.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.40 – 1.08Total 2.47 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 34% · 25%Napoli · Lazio
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.8%), but more scorelines end in Napoli winning, so that is the most likely result (44.2%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70.9% | 29.1% |
| 2.5 | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| 3.5 | 23.7% | 76.3% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Napoli to score 1.40 goals and Lazio 1.08. Its ratings have Napoli scoring at 1.27 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.75 times, against 1.19 and 0.82 for Lazio. Full methodology.
Questions about Napoli vs Lazio
What was the Napoli vs Lazio result?
Napoli 1–1 Lazio at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Napoli vs Lazio?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T10:05:40.662068+00:00, before kickoff, gave Napoli 44.0%, a draw 27.1% and Lazio 28.9%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Napoli vs Lazio?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T07:50:55.696564+00:00 estimated 1.40 goals for Napoli and 1.08 for Lazio (2.47 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (12.8%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 4,555
- Model version
- dc-v4-b9ec6179bf5d
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →