Serie A · Gameweek 11 · Archived pre-match analysis
Monza 0–1 Atalanta
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Atalanta 58.7%
Serie A online record: 33 of 50 most likely results correct (66%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 23/50 (46%). Monza: 4 of 5. Atalanta: 2 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Atalanta a 58.7% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Atalanta. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #4 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 12:05 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Monza are 18th on 7 points after 10 matches; Atalanta are 13th on 11. In 6 Serie A meetings since 2022-23, Monza won 0, Atalanta won 6 and none were drawn. They last met on 4 May 2025: Monza 0–4 Atalanta. In their last 5 league matches Monza won 1 and Atalanta won 1.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Monza at home
4 played · 2W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.3 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 28 Oct 2026 · Napoli · 1–4 (L)
- 19 Oct 2026 · Cagliari · 4–0 (W)
- 18 Sept 2026 · Sassuolo · 2–1 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Udinese · 2–3 (L)
Atalanta away
4 played · 0W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 2.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 29 Oct 2026 · Fiorentina · 2–2 (D)
- 18 Oct 2026 · AC Milan · 2–3 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Juventus · 0–2 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Roma · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Monza vs Atalanta: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62.8%Under 37.2%
- Both teams score
- 60.0%No 40.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.15 – 2.09Total 3.24 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 12% · 32%Monza · Atalanta
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 1–2, happens only 9.8% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83.5% | 16.5% |
| 2.5 | 62.8% | 37.2% |
| 3.5 | 40.6% | 59.4% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Monza to score 1.15 goals and Atalanta 2.09. Its ratings have Monza scoring at 0.96 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.33 times, against 1.30 and 0.89 for Atalanta. Full methodology.
Questions about Monza vs Atalanta
What was the Monza vs Atalanta result?
Monza 0–1 Atalanta at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Monza vs Atalanta?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T10:05:40.662068+00:00, before kickoff, gave Monza 20.2%, a draw 21.0% and Atalanta 58.8%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Monza vs Atalanta?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T12:05:31.658553+00:00 estimated 1.15 goals for Monza and 2.09 for Atalanta (3.24 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–2 (9.8%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 4,555
- Model version
- dc-v4-12c3377d4128
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →