Serie A · Gameweek 11 · Archived pre-match analysis
Inter Milan 2–0 Como
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Inter Milan 50.0%
Serie A online record: 33 of 50 most likely results correct (66%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 23/50 (46%). Inter Milan: 4 of 5. Como: 5 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Inter Milan a 50.0% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Inter Milan. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #4 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 16:21 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Inter Milan are third in Serie A with 25 points from 10 matches, while Como are fifth with 23 points. Both teams have won 4 of their last 5 matches, with Inter Milan losing 1 and Como drawing 1. Inter Milan have won all 5 home matches, while Como have won 4 of 6 away. Inter Milan won the last meeting 4-3 on 12 Apr 2026 and lead the head-to-head 4-0.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Inter Milan at home
4 played · 4W · 0D · 0L
Goals per match: 3.3 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Fiorentina · 2–1 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Parma · 3–0 (W)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Udinese · 5–3 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Napoli · 3–2 (W)
Como away
5 played · 4W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.4 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 27 Oct 2026 · Torino · 3–1 (W)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Fiorentina · 3–1 (W)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Frosinone · 0–2 (L)
- 4 Sept 2026 · Genoa · 4–1 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Napoli · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Inter Milan vs Como: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55.6%Under 44.4%
- Both teams score
- 57.1%No 42.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.73 – 1.18Total 2.91 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 31% · 18%Inter Milan · Como
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.3%), but more scorelines end in Inter Milan winning, so that is the most likely result (50.0%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.8% | 21.2% |
| 2.5 | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| 3.5 | 33.2% | 66.8% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Inter Milan to score 1.73 goals and Como 1.18. Its ratings have Inter Milan scoring at 1.78 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.76 times, against 1.29 and 0.73 for Como. Full methodology.
Questions about Inter Milan vs Como
What was the Inter Milan vs Como result?
Inter Milan 2–0 Como at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Inter Milan vs Como?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T14:51:53.182243+00:00, before kickoff, gave Inter Milan 49.8%, a draw 24.1% and Como 26.1%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Inter Milan vs Como?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T16:21:31.203311+00:00 estimated 1.73 goals for Inter Milan and 1.18 for Como (2.91 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (11.3%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 4,556
- Model version
- dc-v4-72c82b06c6ba
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →