Serie A · Gameweek 11 · Archived pre-match analysis
Fiorentina 2–2 Juventus
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Juventus 46.0%
Serie A online record: 33 of 50 most likely results correct (66%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 23/50 (46%). Fiorentina: 3 of 5. Juventus: 2 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Draw a 26.6% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Juventus. The result did not match that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 16:21 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Fiorentina are 15th on 8 points after 10 matches; Juventus are 7th on 17. In 40 Serie A meetings since 2005-06, Fiorentina won 7, Juventus won 20 and 13 were drawn. They last met on 17 May 2026: Juventus 0–2 Fiorentina. In their last 5 league matches Fiorentina won 1 and Juventus won 2.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Fiorentina at home
5 played · 0W · 2D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 29 Oct 2026 · Atalanta · 2–2 (D)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Como · 1–3 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Napoli · 1–1 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Torino · 1–2 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Frosinone · 0–3 (L)
Juventus away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 28 Oct 2026 · Genoa · 0–2 (L)
- 25 Oct 2026 · Lecce · 2–0 (W)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Cagliari · 1–1 (D)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Sassuolo · 2–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Fiorentina vs Juventus: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46.2%Under 53.8%
- Both teams score
- 50.5%No 49.5%
- Predicted goals
- 1.06 – 1.46Total 2.52 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 23% · 34%Fiorentina · Juventus
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.6%), but more scorelines end in Juventus winning, so that is the most likely result (46.0%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71.9% | 28.1% |
| 2.5 | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| 3.5 | 24.8% | 75.3% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Fiorentina to score 1.06 goals and Juventus 1.46. Its ratings have Fiorentina scoring at 1.10 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.01 times, against 1.20 and 0.72 for Juventus. Full methodology.
Questions about Fiorentina vs Juventus
What was the Fiorentina vs Juventus result?
Fiorentina 2–2 Juventus at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Fiorentina vs Juventus?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T19:07:52.517977+00:00, before kickoff, gave Fiorentina 27.4%, a draw 26.6% and Juventus 46.1%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Fiorentina vs Juventus?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T16:21:31.203311+00:00 estimated 1.06 goals for Fiorentina and 1.46 for Juventus (2.52 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (12.6%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 4,556
- Model version
- dc-v4-72c82b06c6ba
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →