Championship · Gameweek 15 · Archived pre-match analysis
Derby County 3–1 Bolton Wanderers
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Derby County 45.8%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Derby County: 2 of 5. Bolton Wanderers: 2 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Derby County a 45.8% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Derby County. The result matched that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 6 Nov 2026, 17:05 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Derby County are 23rd on 7 points after 14 matches; Bolton Wanderers are 17th on 17. In 12 Championship meetings since 2012-13, Derby County won 6, Bolton Wanderers won 2 and 4 were drawn. They last met on 13 Apr 2019: Derby County 4–0 Bolton Wanderers. In their last 5 league matches Derby County won 0 and Bolton Wanderers won 2.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Derby County at home
5 played · 0W · 1D · 4L
Goals per match: 0.4 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 3 Nov 2026 · Norwich City · 0–4 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Stoke City · 0–1 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Wrexham · 1–1 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Birmingham City · 1–2 (L)
- 9 Sept 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 0–1 (L)
Bolton Wanderers away
4 played · 3W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 3 Nov 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 1–0 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Southampton · 0–0 (D)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Wolverhampton · 3–1 (W)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Norwich City · 4–3 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55.6%Under 44.4%
- Both teams score
- 58.1%No 41.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.64 – 1.27Total 2.91 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 28% · 19%Derby County · Bolton Wanderers
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.6%), but more scorelines end in Derby County winning, so that is the most likely result (45.8%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.9% | 21.1% |
| 2.5 | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| 3.5 | 33.2% | 66.8% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Derby County to score 1.64 goals and Bolton Wanderers 1.27. Its ratings have Derby County scoring at 0.92 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.08 times, against 1.01 and 1.23 for Bolton Wanderers. Full methodology.
Questions about Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers
What was the Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers result?
Derby County 3–1 Bolton Wanderers at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-05T15:50:09.888353+00:00, before kickoff, gave Derby County 45.8%, a draw 24.8% and Bolton Wanderers 29.4%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers?
The forecast published at 2026-11-06T17:05:35.936615+00:00 estimated 1.64 goals for Derby County and 1.27 for Bolton Wanderers (2.91 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (11.6%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-06
- Matches used
- 6,588
- Model version
- dc-v4-c7a1564a2b50
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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