Championship · Gameweek 15 · Archived pre-match analysis
Wrexham 1–1 Wolverhampton
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Wolverhampton 38.6%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Wrexham: 3 of 5. Wolverhampton: 3 of 6. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Draw a 25.1% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Wolverhampton. The result did not match that outcome. The final score ranked #1 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 10:04 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Wrexham are 16th on 17 points after 14 matches; Wolverhampton are 3rd on 27. In their last 5 league matches Wrexham won 2 and Wolverhampton won 4.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Wrexham at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 4 Nov 2026 · Middlesbrough · 2–0 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Preston North End · 4–1 (W)
- 13 Oct 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–2 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Southampton · 2–1 (W)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Burnley · 1–1 (D)
Wolverhampton away
4 played · 3W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 4 Nov 2026 · Bristol City · 2–1 (W)
- 16 Oct 2026 · Burnley · 2–1 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Middlesbrough · 0–1 (L)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Sheffield United · 1–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Wrexham vs Wolverhampton: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56.2%Under 43.8%
- Both teams score
- 59.4%No 40.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.44 – 1.49Total 2.93 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 22% · 24%Wrexham · Wolverhampton
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.7%), but more scorelines end in Wolverhampton winning, so that is the most likely result (38.6%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79.3% | 20.7% |
| 2.5 | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| 3.5 | 33.8% | 66.2% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Wrexham to score 1.44 goals and Wolverhampton 1.49. Its ratings have Wrexham scoring at 1.08 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.04 times, against 1.23 and 0.91 for Wolverhampton. Full methodology.
Questions about Wrexham vs Wolverhampton
What was the Wrexham vs Wolverhampton result?
Wrexham 1–1 Wolverhampton at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Wrexham vs Wolverhampton?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T08:49:40.599456+00:00, before kickoff, gave Wrexham 36.1%, a draw 25.1% and Wolverhampton 38.8%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Wrexham vs Wolverhampton?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T10:04:49.285586+00:00 estimated 1.44 goals for Wrexham and 1.49 for Wolverhampton (2.93 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (11.7%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 6,589
- Model version
- dc-v4-c402b1013cd8
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →