Championship · Gameweek 15 · Archived pre-match analysis
Portsmouth 1–2 Stoke City
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Portsmouth 41.7%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Portsmouth: 1 of 6. Stoke City: 1 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Stoke City a 30.3% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Portsmouth. The result did not match that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 10:04 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Portsmouth are 10th on 22 points after 14 matches; Stoke City are 5th on 26. In 4 Championship meetings since 2024-25, Portsmouth won 2, Stoke City won 2 and none were drawn. They last met on 25 Apr 2026: Stoke City 1–3 Portsmouth. In their last 5 league matches Portsmouth won 3 and Stoke City won 3.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Portsmouth at home
4 played · 3W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.5 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 3 Nov 2026 · Swansea City · 3–1 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Millwall · 2–1 (W)
- 14 Oct 2026 · Sheffield United · 3–2 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 2–2 (D)
Stoke City away
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 3 Nov 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 2–1 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Derby County · 1–0 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 2–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Watford · 2–1 (W)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Cardiff City · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Portsmouth vs Stoke City: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42.8%Under 57.2%
- Both teams score
- 48.5%No 51.5%
- Predicted goals
- 1.31 – 1.08Total 2.39 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 34% · 27%Portsmouth · Stoke City
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.2%), but more scorelines end in Portsmouth winning, so that is the most likely result (41.7%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69.2% | 30.8% |
| 2.5 | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| 3.5 | 21.9% | 78.0% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Portsmouth to score 1.31 goals and Stoke City 1.08. Its ratings have Portsmouth scoring at 0.94 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.02 times, against 0.90 and 0.96 for Stoke City. Full methodology.
Questions about Portsmouth vs Stoke City
What was the Portsmouth vs Stoke City result?
Portsmouth 1–2 Stoke City at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T08:49:40.599456+00:00, before kickoff, gave Portsmouth 41.6%, a draw 28.0% and Stoke City 30.4%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T10:04:49.285586+00:00 estimated 1.31 goals for Portsmouth and 1.08 for Stoke City (2.39 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (13.2%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 6,589
- Model version
- dc-v4-c402b1013cd8
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →