Championship · Gameweek 15 · Archived pre-match analysis
Bristol City 0–5 Norwich City
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Bristol City 38.9%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Bristol City: 1 of 5. Norwich City: 2 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Norwich City a 35.3% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Bristol City. The result did not match that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 10:04 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Bristol City are 15th on 18 points after 14 matches; Norwich City are 12th on 18. In 22 Championship meetings since 2007-08, Bristol City won 8, Norwich City won 10 and 4 were drawn. They last met on 18 Apr 2026: Bristol City 2–4 Norwich City. In their last 5 league matches Bristol City won 1 and Norwich City won 3.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Bristol City at home
5 played · 1W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 0.4 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 4 Nov 2026 · Wolverhampton · 1–2 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Sheffield United · 0–1 (L)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 0–1 (L)
- 18 Sept 2026 · Watford · 1–0 (W)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Lincoln City · 0–1 (L)
Norwich City away
4 played · 2W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.8 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 3 Nov 2026 · Derby County · 4–0 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 3–1 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Swansea City · 1–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Middlesbrough · 3–4 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Bristol City vs Norwich City: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52.7%Under 47.3%
- Both teams score
- 56.7%No 43.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.43 – 1.35Total 2.79 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 26% · 24%Bristol City · Norwich City
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.2%), but more scorelines end in Bristol City winning, so that is the most likely result (38.9%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.9% | 23.1% |
| 2.5 | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| 3.5 | 30.5% | 69.5% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Bristol City to score 1.43 goals and Norwich City 1.35. Its ratings have Bristol City scoring at 0.94 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.97 times, against 1.19 and 1.04 for Norwich City. Full methodology.
Questions about Bristol City vs Norwich City
What was the Bristol City vs Norwich City result?
Bristol City 0–5 Norwich City at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Bristol City vs Norwich City?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T08:49:40.599456+00:00, before kickoff, gave Bristol City 38.8%, a draw 25.8% and Norwich City 35.4%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Bristol City vs Norwich City?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T10:04:49.285586+00:00 estimated 1.43 goals for Bristol City and 1.35 for Norwich City (2.79 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (12.2%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 6,589
- Model version
- dc-v4-c402b1013cd8
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →