Championship · Gameweek 15 · Archived pre-match analysis
Queens Park Rangers 2–1 Lincoln City
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Queens Park Rangers 51.9%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Queens Park Rangers: 4 of 5. Lincoln City: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Queens Park Rangers a 51.9% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Queens Park Rangers. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #3 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 14:50 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Queens Park Rangers are 12th with 21 points, while Lincoln City are 19th with 15 points. Queens Park Rangers’ recent form is DLWLW, compared with Lincoln City’s LLWDL. Queens Park Rangers have three wins, three draws and one loss at home; Lincoln City have three wins, one draw and three losses away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Queens Park Rangers at home
4 played · 2W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 3.0 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 3 Nov 2026 · Burnley · 1–1 (D)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Swansea City · 5–0 (W)
- 14 Oct 2026 · Derby County · 4–1 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Preston North End · 2–2 (D)
Lincoln City away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 3 Nov 2026 · Watford · 0–1 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Millwall · 2–2 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Sheffield United · 0–3 (L)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Bristol City · 1–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Preston North End · 1–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Queens Park Rangers vs Lincoln City: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52.2%Under 47.8%
- Both teams score
- 53.8%No 46.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.70 – 1.07Total 2.77 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 34% · 18%Queens Park Rangers · Lincoln City
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.7%), but more scorelines end in Queens Park Rangers winning, so that is the most likely result (51.9%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.5% | 23.5% |
| 2.5 | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| 3.5 | 30.0% | 70.0% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Queens Park Rangers to score 1.70 goals and Lincoln City 1.07. Its ratings have Queens Park Rangers scoring at 0.99 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.07 times, against 0.85 and 1.17 for Lincoln City. Full methodology.
Questions about Queens Park Rangers vs Lincoln City
What was the Queens Park Rangers vs Lincoln City result?
Queens Park Rangers 2–1 Lincoln City at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Queens Park Rangers vs Lincoln City?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T12:57:50.777216+00:00, before kickoff, gave Queens Park Rangers 51.8%, a draw 24.5% and Lincoln City 23.7%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Queens Park Rangers vs Lincoln City?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T14:50:46.532522+00:00 estimated 1.70 goals for Queens Park Rangers and 1.07 for Lincoln City (2.77 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (11.7%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 6,589
- Model version
- dc-v4-a8ea44e98a23
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →