Championship · Gameweek 15 · Archived pre-match analysis
Cardiff City 5–4 Burnley
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Burnley 43.6%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Cardiff City: 1 of 5. Burnley: 0 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Cardiff City a 30.1% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Burnley. The result did not match that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 14:50 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Cardiff City are 18th on 15 points after 14 matches; Burnley are 22nd on 10. In 20 Championship meetings since 2005-06, Cardiff City won 5, Burnley won 4 and 11 were drawn. They last met on 4 Mar 2025: Cardiff City 1–2 Burnley. In their last 5 league matches Cardiff City won 2 and Burnley won 0.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Cardiff City at home
5 played · 3W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.6 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 4 Nov 2026 · West Ham · 3–3 (D)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Birmingham City · 1–0 (W)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Watford · 5–1 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 3–1 (W)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Stoke City · 1–1 (D)
Burnley away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 3 Nov 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 1–1 (D)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Lincoln City · 1–4 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Watford · 4–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Swansea City · 1–3 (L)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Wrexham · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Cardiff City vs Burnley: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49.1%Under 50.9%
- Both teams score
- 53.4%No 46.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.17 – 1.47Total 2.64 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 23% · 31%Cardiff City · Burnley
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.5%), but more scorelines end in Burnley winning, so that is the most likely result (43.6%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.3% | 25.7% |
| 2.5 | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| 3.5 | 27.2% | 72.8% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Cardiff City to score 1.17 goals and Burnley 1.47. Its ratings have Cardiff City scoring at 0.96 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.15 times, against 1.09 and 0.84 for Burnley. Full methodology.
Questions about Cardiff City vs Burnley
What was the Cardiff City vs Burnley result?
Cardiff City 5–4 Burnley at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Cardiff City vs Burnley?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T12:57:50.777216+00:00, before kickoff, gave Cardiff City 30.0%, a draw 26.3% and Burnley 43.6%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Cardiff City vs Burnley?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T14:50:46.532522+00:00 estimated 1.17 goals for Cardiff City and 1.47 for Burnley (2.64 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (12.5%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 6,589
- Model version
- dc-v4-a8ea44e98a23
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →