Championship · Gameweek 15 · Archived pre-match analysis
Blackburn Rovers 2–1 West Ham
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: West Ham 49.4%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Blackburn Rovers: 3 of 5. West Ham: 1 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Blackburn Rovers a 28.0% probability. The highest-probability outcome was West Ham. The result did not match that outcome. The final score ranked #3 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 14:50 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Blackburn Rovers are 14th on 18 points after 14 matches; West Ham are 8th on 23. In their last 5 league matches Blackburn Rovers won 2 and West Ham won 2.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Blackburn Rovers at home
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 3 Nov 2026 · Stoke City · 1–2 (L)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Wrexham · 2–0 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Cardiff City · 2–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Millwall · 3–1 (W)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Sheffield United · 1–2 (L)
West Ham away
5 played · 3W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 3.0 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 4 Nov 2026 · Cardiff City · 3–3 (D)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Swansea City · 1–0 (W)
- 14 Oct 2026 · Lincoln City · 6–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Millwall · 2–2 (D)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 3–2 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Blackburn Rovers vs West Ham: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64.6%Under 35.4%
- Both teams score
- 64.6%No 35.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.41 – 1.92Total 3.33 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 15% · 25%Blackburn Rovers · West Ham
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (9.9%), but more scorelines end in West Ham winning, so that is the most likely result (49.4%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84.7% | 15.3% |
| 2.5 | 64.6% | 35.4% |
| 3.5 | 42.6% | 57.4% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Blackburn Rovers to score 1.41 goals and West Ham 1.92. Its ratings have Blackburn Rovers scoring at 0.88 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.97 times, against 1.69 and 1.10 for West Ham. Full methodology.
Questions about Blackburn Rovers vs West Ham
What was the Blackburn Rovers vs West Ham result?
Blackburn Rovers 2–1 West Ham at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Blackburn Rovers vs West Ham?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T12:57:50.777216+00:00, before kickoff, gave Blackburn Rovers 27.8%, a draw 22.5% and West Ham 49.6%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Blackburn Rovers vs West Ham?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T14:50:46.532522+00:00 estimated 1.41 goals for Blackburn Rovers and 1.92 for West Ham (3.33 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (9.9%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 6,589
- Model version
- dc-v4-a8ea44e98a23
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →