Championship · Gameweek 15 · Archived pre-match analysis
West Bromwich Albion 3–0 Millwall
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: West Bromwich Albion 41.6%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). West Bromwich Albion: 2 of 5. Millwall: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave West Bromwich Albion a 41.6% probability. The highest-probability outcome was West Bromwich Albion. The result matched that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 14:50 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
West Bromwich Albion are 7th on 25 points after 14 matches; Millwall are 13th on 18. In 14 Championship meetings since 2018-19, West Bromwich Albion won 2, Millwall won 4 and 8 were drawn. They last met on 10 Apr 2026: West Bromwich Albion 0–0 Millwall. In their last 5 league matches West Bromwich Albion won 3 and Millwall won 1.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
West Bromwich Albion at home
4 played · 1W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 3 Nov 2026 · Southampton · 1–1 (D)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 3–2 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Birmingham City · 0–1 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 1–1 (D)
Millwall away
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 3 Nov 2026 · Birmingham City · 0–3 (L)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Portsmouth · 1–2 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Preston North End · 1–0 (W)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Middlesbrough · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 1–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
West Bromwich Albion vs Millwall: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39.2%Under 60.8%
- Both teams score
- 45.5%No 54.5%
- Predicted goals
- 1.25 – 1.01Total 2.25 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 37% · 29%West Bromwich Albion · Millwall
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.4%), but more scorelines end in West Bromwich Albion winning, so that is the most likely result (41.6%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| 2.5 | 39.2% | 60.8% |
| 3.5 | 19.1% | 80.8% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects West Bromwich Albion to score 1.25 goals and Millwall 1.01. Its ratings have West Bromwich Albion scoring at 0.95 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.86 times, against 1.00 and 0.91 for Millwall. Full methodology.
Questions about West Bromwich Albion vs Millwall
What was the West Bromwich Albion vs Millwall result?
West Bromwich Albion 3–0 Millwall at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for West Bromwich Albion vs Millwall?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T12:57:50.777216+00:00, before kickoff, gave West Bromwich Albion 41.5%, a draw 29.0% and Millwall 29.5%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for West Bromwich Albion vs Millwall?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T14:50:46.532522+00:00 estimated 1.25 goals for West Bromwich Albion and 1.01 for Millwall (2.25 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (13.4%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 6,589
- Model version
- dc-v4-a8ea44e98a23
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →