Championship · Gameweek 15 · Archived pre-match analysis
Birmingham City 2–1 Swansea City
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Birmingham City 45.4%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Birmingham City: 4 of 5. Swansea City: 5 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Birmingham City a 45.4% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Birmingham City. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #3 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 14:50 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Birmingham City are 5th in the Championship with 26 points from 14 matches, while Swansea City are 6th with 26 points. Birmingham City have won 4 of their last 5 matches; Swansea City have won 2. The last meeting ended 1-1 on 17 Jan 2026. Birmingham City are unbeaten at home in 7 matches, while Swansea City have won 4 of 7 away matches.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Birmingham City at home
4 played · 3W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 3.0 scored · 0.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 3 Nov 2026 · Millwall · 3–0 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 3–0 (W)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Preston North End · 4–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Middlesbrough · 2–2 (D)
Swansea City away
5 played · 2W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 3 Nov 2026 · Portsmouth · 1–3 (L)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 0–5 (L)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Millwall · 1–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Lincoln City · 2–1 (W)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Southampton · 1–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Birmingham City vs Swansea City: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45.0%Under 55.0%
- Both teams score
- 49.6%No 50.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.43 – 1.05Total 2.48 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 35% · 24%Birmingham City · Swansea City
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.8%), but more scorelines end in Birmingham City winning, so that is the most likely result (45.4%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71.0% | 28.9% |
| 2.5 | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| 3.5 | 23.7% | 76.3% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Birmingham City to score 1.43 goals and Swansea City 1.05. Its ratings have Birmingham City scoring at 1.03 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.90 times, against 1.00 and 0.96 for Swansea City. Full methodology.
Questions about Birmingham City vs Swansea City
What was the Birmingham City vs Swansea City result?
Birmingham City 2–1 Swansea City at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Birmingham City vs Swansea City?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T12:57:50.777216+00:00, before kickoff, gave Birmingham City 45.4%, a draw 27.1% and Swansea City 27.5%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Birmingham City vs Swansea City?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T14:50:46.532522+00:00 estimated 1.43 goals for Birmingham City and 1.05 for Swansea City (2.48 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (12.8%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 6,589
- Model version
- dc-v4-a8ea44e98a23
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →