Premier League · Gameweek 7
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
Odds from leovegas. “Our fair odds” are the odds our model's chance implies, with no bookmaker margin. “Bookmaker chance” is the chance the odds imply once the margin is removed. The coloured chip is our chance minus the bookmaker chance, in percentage points. A gap is not a betting tip.
Our model makes Arsenal 52.2% favourites at Nottingham Forest; the market has 59.0%. Our model is more bullish on Nottingham Forest than the market.
Match preview
Nottingham Forest are 13th on 5 points after 5 matches; Arsenal are 2nd on 12. In 8 Premier League meetings since 2022-23, Nottingham Forest won 1, Arsenal won 5 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 17 Jan 2026: Nottingham Forest 0–0 Arsenal. In their last 5 league matches Nottingham Forest won 1 and Arsenal won 4.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44.5%Under 55.5%
- Both teams score
- 47.6%No 52.4%
- Expected goals
- 0.89 – 1.56Total 2.46
- Clean sheet
- 21% · 41%Nottingham Forest · Arsenal
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71.3% | 28.7% | 1.40 | 3.49 |
| 2.5 | 44.5% | 55.5% | 2.25 | 1.80 |
| 3.5 | 23.3% | 76.7% | 4.29 | 1.30 |
Regular time only. Expected goals are averages of modelled scorelines, not shot-based xG. Goal probabilities come from the same score grid as the result probabilities and have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›How the probabilities are made
The probabilities come from a Dixon–Coles model fitted only on matches that had already finished. It uses league home advantage and each team's attack and defence strength. It does not use injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Questions about Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
Who is the favourite in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Our model's most likely result is Arsenal win at 52.2%. Full probabilities: Nottingham Forest 20.5%, draw 27.3%, Arsenal 52.2%. De-vigged market odds give 59.0%.
What is the most likely score in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.9%. The model expects 0.89 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.56 for Arsenal.
Will Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 44.5% and both teams to score 47.6%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. A gap between the model and the market is not evidence of a betting edge. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-05
- Matches used
- 4540
- Odds checked
- 5 Oct 2026, 01:57 UTC
- Model version
- dc-v4-f7f29581a715
- Data source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.