Premier League · Gameweek 12
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Chelsea 37.4%
Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Nottingham Forest: 3 of 5. Chelsea: 2 of 5. See every prediction ›
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea: prediction analysis
Nottingham Forest are 16th with 9 points, while Chelsea sit 5th with 16 points. Forest’s recent form is WLDLL, compared with Chelsea’s LWLWW. Across 8 meetings since 2022-23, there have been 3 draws, with Chelsea winning 3 and Forest 2. The last meeting ended Chelsea 1-3 Nottingham Forest on 4 May 2026.
Team news
Nottingham Forest
- Out
- Dominguez (injured), Savona (injured)
- In form
- Neco Williams 1 goal
Chelsea
- Out
- Lacroix (injured), João Pedro (injured), Hato (injured), James (injured), Gittens (injured)
- Doubtful
- Acheampong (75%), Martinez (75%)
- In form
- Cole Palmer 1 goal, 2 assists · Morgan Rogers 2 goals · João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus 2 goals
Squad status from Fantasy Premier League, checked 13 Nov 2026, 20:19 UTC. Line-ups not confirmed; assists follow FPL scoring. The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Nottingham Forest at home
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.6 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 7 Nov 2026 · Manchester City · 3–1 (W)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Arsenal · 0–1 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Coventry City · 0–1 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Tottenham · 0–0 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Leeds United · 0–1 (L)
Chelsea away
5 played · 2W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 8 Nov 2026 · Sunderland · 0–1 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Everton · 2–0 (W)
- 18 Sept 2026 · Brentford · 0–3 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Arsenal · 1–2 (L)
- 24 Aug 2026 · Fulham · 3–2 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52.5%Under 47.5%
- Both teams score
- 57.0%No 43.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.37 – 1.40Total 2.78 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 25% · 25%Nottingham Forest · Chelsea
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.6%), but more scorelines end in Chelsea winning, so that is the most likely result (37.4%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.1% | 22.9% |
| 2.5 | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| 3.5 | 30.3% | 69.7% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Nottingham Forest to score 1.37 goals and Chelsea 1.40. Its ratings have Nottingham Forest scoring at 0.97 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.91 times, against 1.23 and 0.94 for Chelsea. Full methodology.
Questions about Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
Who is the favourite in Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?
Our model's most likely result is Chelsea win at 37.4%. Full probabilities: Nottingham Forest 36.0%, draw 26.6%, Chelsea 37.4%.
What is the most likely score in Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.6%. The model expects 1.37 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.40 for Chelsea.
Will Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 52.5% and both teams to score 57.0%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-13
- Matches used
- 4,550
- Model version
- dc-v4-eaf9a92b5da5
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Premier League season outlook →