Bundesliga · Gameweek 10
Bayern Munich vs FC Cologne Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Bayern Munich 87.3%
Bundesliga online record: 21 of 36 most likely results correct (58%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 18/36 (50%). See every prediction ›
Bayern Munich vs FC Cologne: prediction analysis
Bayern Munich lead the Bundesliga with 21 points from 9 matches, while FC Cologne are 15th with 9 points. Bayern Munich’s recent form is WDWWD, compared with FC Cologne’s LDDLW. Bayern Munich have won 22 of 30 meetings, including a 5-1 victory in the last meeting on 16 May 2026. Bayern Munich are unbeaten at home in 4 matches, while FC Cologne have lost 3 of 4 away matches.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Bayern Munich at home
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 5.0 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 2–2 (D)
- 17 Oct 2026 · RB Leipzig · 6–1 (W)
- 18 Sept 2026 · Union Berlin · 7–0 (W)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Stuttgart · 5–1 (W)
- 16 May 2026 · Fc Cologne · 5–1 (W)
FC Cologne away
5 played · 0W · 1D · 4L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 2.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Union Berlin · 1–1 (D)
- 16 Oct 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 0–1 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Hamburg · 1–2 (L)
- 4 Sept 2026 · Stuttgart · 1–4 (L)
- 16 May 2026 · Bayern Munich · 1–5 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Bayern Munich vs FC Cologne: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 83.2%Under 16.8%
- Both teams score
- 55.8%No 44.2%
- Predicted goals
- 3.70 – 0.84Total 4.55 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 43% · 2%Bayern Munich · FC Cologne
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 3–0, happens only 9.0% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 94.4% | 5.6% |
| 2.5 | 83.2% | 16.8% |
| 3.5 | 66.6% | 33.4% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Bayern Munich to score 3.70 goals and FC Cologne 0.84. Its ratings have Bayern Munich scoring at 2.09 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.72 times, against 0.88 and 1.06 for FC Cologne. Full methodology.
Questions about Bayern Munich vs FC Cologne
Who is the favourite in Bayern Munich vs FC Cologne?
Our model's most likely result is Bayern Munich win at 87.3%. Full probabilities: Bayern Munich 87.3%, draw 8.5%, FC Cologne 4.2%.
What is the most likely score in Bayern Munich vs FC Cologne?
3–0 is the single most likely score at 9.0%. The model expects 3.70 goals for Bayern Munich and 0.84 for FC Cologne.
Will Bayern Munich vs FC Cologne have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 83.2% and both teams to score 55.8%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 3,654
- Model version
- dc-v4-285780ead747
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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