Bundesliga · Gameweek 10
Schalke vs Stuttgart Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Stuttgart 48.7%
Bundesliga online record: 21 of 36 most likely results correct (58%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 18/36 (50%). See every prediction ›
Schalke vs Stuttgart: prediction analysis
Schalke are 17th on 6 points after 9 matches; Stuttgart are 8th on 12. In 30 Bundesliga meetings since 2005-06, Schalke won 14, Stuttgart won 10 and 6 were drawn. They last met on 25 Feb 2023: Schalke 2–1 Stuttgart. In their last 5 league matches Schalke won 0 and Stuttgart won 3.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Schalke at home
4 played · 0W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.0 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · RB Leipzig · 0–2 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Mainz · 0–1 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Elversberg · 0–0 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Bayern Munich · 0–0 (D)
Stuttgart away
5 played · 2W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Bayer Leverkusen · 4–2 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Hamburg · 0–1 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Paderborn · 2–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Hoffenheim · 1–2 (L)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Bayern Munich · 1–5 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Schalke vs Stuttgart: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47.5%Under 52.5%
- Both teams score
- 51.3%No 48.7%
- Predicted goals
- 1.02 – 1.55Total 2.57 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 21% · 36%Schalke · Stuttgart
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.9%), but more scorelines end in Stuttgart winning, so that is the most likely result (48.7%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.6% | 26.4% |
| 2.5 | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| 3.5 | 25.8% | 74.2% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Schalke to score 1.02 goals and Stuttgart 1.55. Its ratings have Schalke scoring at 0.68 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.91 times, against 1.29 and 0.90 for Stuttgart. Full methodology.
Questions about Schalke vs Stuttgart
Who is the favourite in Schalke vs Stuttgart?
Our model's most likely result is Stuttgart win at 48.7%. Full probabilities: Schalke 24.2%, draw 27.2%, Stuttgart 48.7%.
What is the most likely score in Schalke vs Stuttgart?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.9%. The model expects 1.02 goals for Schalke and 1.55 for Stuttgart.
Will Schalke vs Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 47.5% and both teams to score 51.3%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 3,654
- Model version
- dc-v4-285780ead747
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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