Bundesliga · Gameweek 10
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: RB Leipzig 52.7%
Bundesliga online record: 21 of 36 most likely results correct (58%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 18/36 (50%). See every prediction ›
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig: prediction analysis
Union Berlin are 16th on 7 points after 9 matches; RB Leipzig are 4th on 18. In 14 Bundesliga meetings since 2019-20, Union Berlin won 6, RB Leipzig won 6 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 24 Apr 2026: RB Leipzig 3–1 Union Berlin. In their last 5 league matches Union Berlin won 1 and RB Leipzig won 4.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Union Berlin at home
5 played · 1W · 3D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Fc Cologne · 1–1 (D)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 0–0 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Elversberg · 1–0 (W)
- 11 Sept 2026 · Schalke · 1–3 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 3–3 (D)
RB Leipzig away
5 played · 1W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 3.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Schalke · 2–0 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Bayern Munich · 1–6 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Bayer Leverkusen · 0–2 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Werder Bremen · 1–3 (L)
- 16 May 2026 · Freiburg · 1–4 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57.3%Under 42.7%
- Both teams score
- 58.1%No 41.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.15 – 1.84Total 2.98 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 16% · 32%Union Berlin · RB Leipzig
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.4%), but more scorelines end in RB Leipzig winning, so that is the most likely result (52.7%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.6% | 19.4% |
| 2.5 | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| 3.5 | 34.9% | 65.1% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Union Berlin to score 1.15 goals and RB Leipzig 1.84. Its ratings have Union Berlin scoring at 0.81 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 1.01 times, against 1.37 and 0.85 for RB Leipzig. Full methodology.
Questions about Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig
Who is the favourite in Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our model's most likely result is RB Leipzig win at 52.7%. Full probabilities: Union Berlin 22.9%, draw 24.4%, RB Leipzig 52.7%.
What is the most likely score in Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.4%. The model expects 1.15 goals for Union Berlin and 1.84 for RB Leipzig.
Will Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 57.3% and both teams to score 58.1%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 3,654
- Model version
- dc-v4-285780ead747
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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