Bundesliga · Gameweek 10
Bayer Leverkusen vs Paderborn Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Bayer Leverkusen 62.5%
Bundesliga online record: 21 of 36 most likely results correct (58%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 18/36 (50%). See every prediction ›
Bayer Leverkusen vs Paderborn: prediction analysis
Bayer Leverkusen are fifth with 16 points from 9 matches, while Paderborn are 13th with 10 points. Leverkusen's recent form is WLLWW, compared with Paderborn's DDWDL. At home, Leverkusen have 3 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from 4 matches; Paderborn have 0 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss on the road.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Bayer Leverkusen at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.2 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Stuttgart · 2–4 (L)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Freiburg · 2–1 (W)
- 20 Sept 2026 · RB Leipzig · 2–0 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Union Berlin · 4–0 (W)
- 16 May 2026 · Hamburg · 1–1 (D)
Paderborn away
4 played · 0W · 3D · 1L
Goals per match: 0.5 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Borussia Monchengladbach · 0–0 (D)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Werder Bremen · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 0–3 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Mainz · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Paderborn: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54.5%Under 45.5%
- Both teams score
- 51.1%No 48.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.98 – 0.88Total 2.86 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 42% · 14%Bayer Leverkusen · Paderborn
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 2–0, happens only 11.2% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.6% | 21.4% |
| 2.5 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 3.5 | 32.2% | 67.8% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Bayer Leverkusen to score 1.98 goals and Paderborn 0.88. Its ratings have Bayer Leverkusen scoring at 1.39 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.86 times, against 0.78 and 0.86 for Paderborn. Full methodology.
Questions about Bayer Leverkusen vs Paderborn
Who is the favourite in Bayer Leverkusen vs Paderborn?
Our model's most likely result is Bayer Leverkusen win at 62.5%. Full probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 62.5%, draw 22.4%, Paderborn 15.2%.
What is the most likely score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Paderborn?
2–0 is the single most likely score at 11.2%. The model expects 1.98 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.88 for Paderborn.
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs Paderborn have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 54.5% and both teams to score 51.1%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 3,654
- Model version
- dc-v4-91121a090842
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Bundesliga season outlook →