Bundesliga · Gameweek 10
Elversberg vs Freiburg Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Elversberg 46.1%
Bundesliga online record: 21 of 36 most likely results correct (58%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 18/36 (50%). See every prediction ›
Elversberg vs Freiburg: prediction analysis
Elversberg are seventh with 13 points from 9 matches, while Freiburg are third with 19 points. Elversberg’s recent form is LWLWL, compared with Freiburg’s WWLLW. At home, Elversberg have won 3 of 4 matches, while Freiburg have won 2 of 4 away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Elversberg at home
4 played · 3W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 3.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 30 Oct 2026 · Mainz · 4–1 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Augsburg · 4–3 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Bayern Munich · 1–2 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Bayer Leverkusen · 3–2 (W)
Freiburg away
4 played · 2W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Augsburg · 2–1 (W)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Bayer Leverkusen · 1–2 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 2–2 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Paderborn · 1–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Elversberg vs Freiburg: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68.1%Under 31.9%
- Both teams score
- 68.4%No 31.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.94 – 1.57Total 3.51 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 21% · 14%Elversberg · Freiburg
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (9.8%), but more scorelines end in Elversberg winning, so that is the most likely result (46.1%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87.1% | 12.9% |
| 2.5 | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| 3.5 | 46.5% | 53.5% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Elversberg to score 1.94 goals and Freiburg 1.57. Its ratings have Elversberg scoring at 1.24 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 1.09 times, against 1.08 and 0.93 for Freiburg. Full methodology.
Questions about Elversberg vs Freiburg
Who is the favourite in Elversberg vs Freiburg?
Our model's most likely result is Elversberg win at 46.1%. Full probabilities: Elversberg 46.1%, draw 23.2%, Freiburg 30.7%.
What is the most likely score in Elversberg vs Freiburg?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 9.8%. The model expects 1.94 goals for Elversberg and 1.57 for Freiburg.
Will Elversberg vs Freiburg have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 68.1% and both teams to score 68.4%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 3,654
- Model version
- dc-v4-285780ead747
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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