Bundesliga · Gameweek 10
Borussia Monchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Borussia Dortmund 55.0%
Bundesliga online record: 21 of 36 most likely results correct (58%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 18/36 (50%). See every prediction ›
Borussia Monchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction analysis
Borussia Monchengladbach are 18th with 4 points after 9 matches, while Borussia Dortmund are 2nd with 21 points. The hosts have won 1 of their last 5; Dortmund have won 2 and drawn 3. Across 40 meetings, Dortmund have 26 wins and Monchengladbach 10. The last meeting ended Borussia Monchengladbach 1-0 Borussia Dortmund on 3 May 2026.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Borussia Monchengladbach at home
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 2.2 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Paderborn · 0–0 (D)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Hoffenheim · 1–2 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Mainz · 3–4 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Elversberg · 3–4 (L)
- 16 May 2026 · Hoffenheim · 4–0 (W)
Borussia Dortmund away
5 played · 3W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Bayern Munich · 2–2 (D)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Union Berlin · 0–0 (D)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Stuttgart · 1–0 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Hoffenheim · 3–2 (W)
- 16 May 2026 · Werder Bremen · 2–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Borussia Monchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60.3%Under 39.7%
- Both teams score
- 59.8%No 40.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.17 – 1.95Total 3.12 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 14% · 31%Borussia Monchengladbach · Borussia Dortmund
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (10.8%), but more scorelines end in Borussia Dortmund winning, so that is the most likely result (55.0%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82.5% | 17.5% |
| 2.5 | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| 3.5 | 38.0% | 62.0% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Borussia Monchengladbach to score 1.17 goals and Borussia Dortmund 1.95. Its ratings have Borussia Monchengladbach scoring at 0.98 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 1.10 times, against 1.35 and 0.71 for Borussia Dortmund. Full methodology.
Questions about Borussia Monchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund
Who is the favourite in Borussia Monchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model's most likely result is Borussia Dortmund win at 55.0%. Full probabilities: Borussia Monchengladbach 21.7%, draw 23.3%, Borussia Dortmund 55.0%.
What is the most likely score in Borussia Monchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 10.8%. The model expects 1.17 goals for Borussia Monchengladbach and 1.95 for Borussia Dortmund.
Will Borussia Monchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 60.3% and both teams to score 59.8%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-11
- Matches used
- 3,654
- Model version
- dc-v4-e17df267f9b6
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Bundesliga season outlook →