Bundesliga · Gameweek 10
Augsburg vs Mainz Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Augsburg 40.2%
Bundesliga online record: 21 of 36 most likely results correct (58%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 18/36 (50%). See every prediction ›
Augsburg vs Mainz: prediction analysis
Augsburg are 14th in the Bundesliga with 9 points, while Mainz are 12th with 10 points. Augsburg's recent form is LLDLD, compared with Mainz's LLLWL. Mainz lead the head-to-head record with 15 wins to Augsburg's 12 across 30 meetings, including a 2-0 win on 7 Feb 2026. Augsburg have 1 win in 5 home matches, while Mainz have 3 wins in 4 away matches.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Augsburg at home
5 played · 1W · 3D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Freiburg · 1–2 (L)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Union Berlin · 1–1 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Bayern Munich · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Bayer Leverkusen · 2–2 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Schalke · 3–0 (W)
Mainz away
5 played · 4W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.6 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 30 Oct 2026 · Elversberg · 1–4 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Schalke · 1–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Borussia Monchengladbach · 4–3 (W)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Hamburg · 5–0 (W)
- 16 May 2026 · Heidenheim · 2–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Augsburg vs Mainz: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57.8%Under 42.2%
- Both teams score
- 61.1%No 38.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.57 – 1.43Total 3.01 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 24% · 21%Augsburg · Mainz
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.9%), but more scorelines end in Augsburg winning, so that is the most likely result (40.2%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81.0% | 19.0% |
| 2.5 | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| 3.5 | 35.4% | 64.6% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Augsburg to score 1.57 goals and Mainz 1.43. Its ratings have Augsburg scoring at 0.98 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 1.06 times, against 1.03 and 0.96 for Mainz. Full methodology.
Questions about Augsburg vs Mainz
Who is the favourite in Augsburg vs Mainz?
Our model's most likely result is Augsburg win at 40.2%. Full probabilities: Augsburg 40.2%, draw 25.8%, Mainz 34.0%.
What is the most likely score in Augsburg vs Mainz?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.9%. The model expects 1.57 goals for Augsburg and 1.43 for Mainz.
Will Augsburg vs Mainz have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 57.8% and both teams to score 61.1%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-11
- Matches used
- 3,654
- Model version
- dc-v4-e17df267f9b6
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Bundesliga season outlook →