Bundesliga · Gameweek 10
Werder Bremen vs Hamburg Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Werder Bremen 49.2%
Bundesliga online record: 21 of 36 most likely results correct (58%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 18/36 (50%). See every prediction ›
Werder Bremen vs Hamburg: prediction analysis
Werder Bremen are sixth with 15 points, while Hamburg are 11th with 12 points. Werder Bremen’s recent form is LWWDD, compared with Hamburg’s WLLWW. Werder Bremen lead the head-to-head record with 14 wins to Hamburg’s 9 across 28 meetings, including a 3-1 win on 18 Apr 2026. Werder Bremen are unbeaten at home, while Hamburg have lost 4 of 5 away matches.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Werder Bremen at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Hoffenheim · 2–0 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Paderborn · 2–2 (D)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Augsburg · 3–2 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · RB Leipzig · 3–1 (W)
- 16 May 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 0–2 (L)
Hamburg away
5 played · 1W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 2.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 1–3 (L)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Paderborn · 0–1 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Hoffenheim · 3–2 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · RB Leipzig · 0–5 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 0–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Werder Bremen vs Hamburg: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53.4%Under 46.6%
- Both teams score
- 56.1%No 43.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.68 – 1.14Total 2.82 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 32% · 19%Werder Bremen · Hamburg
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.2%), but more scorelines end in Werder Bremen winning, so that is the most likely result (49.2%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.0% | 22.0% |
| 2.5 | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| 3.5 | 31.1% | 68.8% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Werder Bremen to score 1.68 goals and Hamburg 1.14. Its ratings have Werder Bremen scoring at 0.96 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 1.01 times, against 0.85 and 1.05 for Hamburg. Full methodology.
Questions about Werder Bremen vs Hamburg
Who is the favourite in Werder Bremen vs Hamburg?
Our model's most likely result is Werder Bremen win at 49.2%. Full probabilities: Werder Bremen 49.2%, draw 25.8%, Hamburg 25.0%.
What is the most likely score in Werder Bremen vs Hamburg?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.2%. The model expects 1.68 goals for Werder Bremen and 1.14 for Hamburg.
Will Werder Bremen vs Hamburg have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 53.4% and both teams to score 56.1%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 3,654
- Model version
- dc-v4-91121a090842
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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