Bundesliga · Gameweek 11
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Monchengladbach Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Werder Bremen 47.3%
Bundesliga online record: 21 of 36 most likely results correct (58%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 18/36 (50%). See every prediction ›
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Monchengladbach: prediction analysis
Werder Bremen are sixth with 15 points, while Borussia Monchengladbach are 18th with 4 points. Werder Bremen’s recent form is LWWDD, compared with LDWLL for Borussia Monchengladbach. The teams have drawn 13 of 38 meetings, with Borussia Monchengladbach leading the wins 17 to 8. The last meeting ended 1-1 on 31 Jan 2026; Werder Bremen are unbeaten at home in 4 matches, while Borussia Monchengladbach have lost 4 of 5 away matches.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Werder Bremen at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Hoffenheim · 2–0 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Paderborn · 2–2 (D)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Augsburg · 3–2 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · RB Leipzig · 3–1 (W)
- 16 May 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 0–2 (L)
Borussia Monchengladbach away
5 played · 1W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 3.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 6 Nov 2026 · Hamburg · 1–3 (L)
- 23 Oct 2026 · Stuttgart · 3–2 (W)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Fc Cologne · 1–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Freiburg · 0–5 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · RB Leipzig · 0–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Monchengladbach: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59.1%Under 40.9%
- Both teams score
- 61.1%No 38.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.76 – 1.31Total 3.07 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 27% · 17%Werder Bremen · Borussia Monchengladbach
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.5%), but more scorelines end in Werder Bremen winning, so that is the most likely result (47.3%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81.8% | 18.2% |
| 2.5 | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| 3.5 | 36.8% | 63.2% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Werder Bremen to score 1.76 goals and Borussia Monchengladbach 1.31. Its ratings have Werder Bremen scoring at 0.96 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 1.01 times, against 0.98 and 1.10 for Borussia Monchengladbach. Full methodology.
Questions about Werder Bremen vs Borussia Monchengladbach
Who is the favourite in Werder Bremen vs Borussia Monchengladbach?
Our model's most likely result is Werder Bremen win at 47.3%. Full probabilities: Werder Bremen 47.3%, draw 24.9%, Borussia Monchengladbach 27.8%.
What is the most likely score in Werder Bremen vs Borussia Monchengladbach?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.5%. The model expects 1.76 goals for Werder Bremen and 1.31 for Borussia Monchengladbach.
Will Werder Bremen vs Borussia Monchengladbach have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 59.1% and both teams to score 61.1%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-13
- Matches used
- 3,654
- Model version
- dc-v4-61c16737e7f6
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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