Ligue 1 · Gameweek 11
Troyes vs Le Havre Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Troyes 39.5%
Ligue 1 online record: 20 of 36 most likely results correct (56%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/36 (47%). See every prediction ›
Troyes vs Le Havre: prediction analysis
Troyes are 17th on 8 points after 10 matches; Le Havre are 18th on 2. In their last 5 league matches Troyes won 1 and Le Havre won 0.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Troyes at home
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Le Mans · 2–0 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Lens · 1–3 (L)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Marseille · 0–2 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Strasbourg · 2–6 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Paris FC · 0–0 (D)
Le Havre away
4 played · 0W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 2.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Marseille · 3–4 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Lille · 0–1 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Toulouse · 2–3 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Lyon · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Troyes vs Le Havre: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42.0%Under 58.0%
- Both teams score
- 48.4%No 51.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.26 – 1.10Total 2.36 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 28%Troyes · Le Havre
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.7%), but more scorelines end in Troyes winning, so that is the most likely result (39.5%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68.9% | 31.1% |
| 2.5 | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| 3.5 | 21.4% | 78.7% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Troyes to score 1.26 goals and Le Havre 1.10. Its ratings have Troyes scoring at 0.77 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 1.10 times, against 0.81 and 1.10 for Le Havre. Full methodology.
Questions about Troyes vs Le Havre
Who is the favourite in Troyes vs Le Havre?
Our model's most likely result is Troyes win at 39.5%. Full probabilities: Troyes 39.5%, draw 29.0%, Le Havre 31.5%.
What is the most likely score in Troyes vs Le Havre?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.7%. The model expects 1.26 goals for Troyes and 1.10 for Le Havre.
Will Troyes vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 42.0% and both teams to score 48.4%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,197
- Model version
- dc-v4-a0fb56f35a20
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Ligue 1 season outlook →