Ligue 1 · Gameweek 11
Monaco vs Auxerre Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Monaco 60.3%
Ligue 1 online record: 20 of 36 most likely results correct (56%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/36 (47%). See every prediction ›
Monaco vs Auxerre: prediction analysis
Monaco are 7th on 16 points after 10 matches; Auxerre are 14th on 10. In 18 Ligue 1 meetings since 2005-06, Monaco won 9, Auxerre won 6 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 19 Apr 2026: Monaco 2–2 Auxerre. In their last 5 league matches Monaco won 0 and Auxerre won 1.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Monaco at home
4 played · 2W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Lille · 1–1 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Toulouse · 2–2 (D)
- 18 Sept 2026 · Lens · 2–1 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Marseille · 2–0 (W)
Auxerre away
5 played · 1W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 3.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Strasbourg · 1–5 (L)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Le Havre · 3–1 (W)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Rennes · 1–4 (L)
- 4 Sept 2026 · Lyon · 1–3 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Lens · 2–5 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Monaco vs Auxerre: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59.6%Under 40.4%
- Both teams score
- 56.7%No 43.3%
- Predicted goals
- 2.05 – 1.04Total 3.09 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 35% · 13%Monaco · Auxerre
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (10.1%), but more scorelines end in Monaco winning, so that is the most likely result (60.3%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81.8% | 18.2% |
| 2.5 | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| 3.5 | 37.3% | 62.8% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Monaco to score 2.05 goals and Auxerre 1.04. Its ratings have Monaco scoring at 1.29 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.92 times, against 0.92 and 1.06 for Auxerre. Full methodology.
Questions about Monaco vs Auxerre
Who is the favourite in Monaco vs Auxerre?
Our model's most likely result is Monaco win at 60.3%. Full probabilities: Monaco 60.3%, draw 21.7%, Auxerre 18.0%.
What is the most likely score in Monaco vs Auxerre?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 10.1%. The model expects 2.05 goals for Monaco and 1.04 for Auxerre.
Will Monaco vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 59.6% and both teams to score 56.7%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,197
- Model version
- dc-v4-a0fb56f35a20
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Ligue 1 season outlook →