Ligue 1 · Gameweek 11
Paris FC vs Angers Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Paris FC 61.5%
Ligue 1 online record: 20 of 36 most likely results correct (56%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/36 (47%). See every prediction ›
Paris FC vs Angers: prediction analysis
Paris FC are 3rd on 20 points after 10 matches; Angers are 16th on 8. In 2 Ligue 1 meetings since 2025-26, Paris FC won 0, Angers won 1 and 1 was drawn. They last met on 25 Jan 2026: Paris FC 0–0 Angers. In their last 5 league matches Paris FC won 3 and Angers won 0.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Paris FC at home
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.4 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Monaco · 3–1 (W)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Rennes · 4–3 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Strasbourg · 2–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Lyon · 0–0 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Nice · 3–0 (W)
Angers away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Lyon · 0–2 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Brest · 1–5 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Le Havre · 0–0 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Auxerre · 3–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Paris FC vs Angers: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47.8%Under 52.2%
- Both teams score
- 45.6%No 54.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.81 – 0.77Total 2.59 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 46% · 16%Paris FC · Angers
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 1–0, happens only 13.2% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.5% | 26.6% |
| 2.5 | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| 3.5 | 26.1% | 73.9% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Paris FC to score 1.81 goals and Angers 0.77. Its ratings have Paris FC scoring at 1.13 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.88 times, against 0.72 and 1.07 for Angers. Full methodology.
Questions about Paris FC vs Angers
Who is the favourite in Paris FC vs Angers?
Our model's most likely result is Paris FC win at 61.5%. Full probabilities: Paris FC 61.5%, draw 23.4%, Angers 15.1%.
What is the most likely score in Paris FC vs Angers?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 13.2%. The model expects 1.81 goals for Paris FC and 0.77 for Angers.
Will Paris FC vs Angers have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 47.8% and both teams to score 45.6%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,197
- Model version
- dc-v4-a0fb56f35a20
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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