Ligue 1 · Gameweek 11
Strasbourg vs Brest Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Strasbourg 48.5%
Ligue 1 online record: 20 of 36 most likely results correct (56%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/36 (47%). See every prediction ›
Strasbourg vs Brest: prediction analysis
Strasbourg are 13th on 10 points after 10 matches; Brest are 9th on 15. In 13 Ligue 1 meetings since 2019-20, Strasbourg won 4, Brest won 5 and 4 were drawn. They last met on 13 May 2026: Brest 1–2 Strasbourg. In their last 5 league matches Strasbourg won 1 and Brest won 3.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Strasbourg at home
4 played · 2W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.3 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Auxerre · 5–1 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 1–3 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Monaco · 1–1 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Lens · 2–1 (W)
Brest away
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 2 Nov 2026 · Lorient · 2–0 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Lille · 1–1 (D)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Auxerre · 1–2 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Le Havre · 2–1 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Le Mans · 2–2 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Strasbourg vs Brest: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62.9%Under 37.1%
- Both teams score
- 63.7%No 36.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.86 – 1.38Total 3.24 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 25% · 16%Strasbourg · Brest
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (10.5%), but more scorelines end in Strasbourg winning, so that is the most likely result (48.5%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83.9% | 16.1% |
| 2.5 | 62.9% | 37.1% |
| 3.5 | 40.7% | 59.3% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Strasbourg to score 1.86 goals and Brest 1.38. Its ratings have Strasbourg scoring at 1.23 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 1.03 times, against 1.10 and 1.01 for Brest. Full methodology.
Questions about Strasbourg vs Brest
Who is the favourite in Strasbourg vs Brest?
Our model's most likely result is Strasbourg win at 48.5%. Full probabilities: Strasbourg 48.5%, draw 23.5%, Brest 28.1%.
What is the most likely score in Strasbourg vs Brest?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 10.5%. The model expects 1.86 goals for Strasbourg and 1.38 for Brest.
Will Strasbourg vs Brest have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 62.9% and both teams to score 63.7%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,197
- Model version
- dc-v4-a0fb56f35a20
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Ligue 1 season outlook →