Ligue 1 · Gameweek 11
Lens vs Toulouse Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Lens 53.0%
Ligue 1 online record: 20 of 36 most likely results correct (56%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/36 (47%). See every prediction ›
Lens vs Toulouse: prediction analysis
Lens are 11th in Ligue 1 with 13 points, while Toulouse are 12th, also with 13 points. Lens have won three of their last five matches, while Toulouse have won two. Lens lead the head-to-head record with 11 wins from 20 meetings, and won the last meeting 3-2 on 17 Apr 2026. Lens have won three of five at home, while Toulouse have won one of five away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Lens at home
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 8 Nov 2026 · Marseille · 1–2 (L)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Paris FC · 2–1 (W)
- 9 Oct 2026 · Lyon · 2–1 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Lorient · 0–1 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Auxerre · 5–2 (W)
Toulouse away
5 played · 1W · 3D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Marseille · 0–2 (L)
- 16 Oct 2026 · Le Mans · 3–0 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Monaco · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Lorient · 2–2 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Brest · 2–2 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Lens vs Toulouse: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51.9%Under 48.1%
- Both teams score
- 53.4%No 46.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.72 – 1.03Total 2.75 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 36% · 18%Lens · Toulouse
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.8%), but more scorelines end in Lens winning, so that is the most likely result (53.0%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.6% | 23.4% |
| 2.5 | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| 3.5 | 29.8% | 70.2% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Lens to score 1.72 goals and Toulouse 1.03. Its ratings have Lens scoring at 1.24 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.81 times, against 1.03 and 0.93 for Toulouse. Full methodology.
Questions about Lens vs Toulouse
Who is the favourite in Lens vs Toulouse?
Our model's most likely result is Lens win at 53.0%. Full probabilities: Lens 53.0%, draw 24.9%, Toulouse 22.1%.
What is the most likely score in Lens vs Toulouse?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.8%. The model expects 1.72 goals for Lens and 1.03 for Toulouse.
Will Lens vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 51.9% and both teams to score 53.4%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,197
- Model version
- dc-v4-a0fb56f35a20
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Ligue 1 season outlook →