Ligue 1 · Gameweek 11
Lille vs Lyon Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Lille 44.4%
Ligue 1 online record: 20 of 36 most likely results correct (56%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/36 (47%). See every prediction ›
Lille vs Lyon: prediction analysis
Lille are second in Ligue 1 with 21 points from 10 matches, while Lyon are fifth with 17 points. Lille’s recent form is WWDDW, compared with Lyon’s LWLWL. Across 42 meetings, Lille have 15 wins, Lyon have 12 and there have been 15 draws. Lyon won the last meeting 1-0 on 1 Feb 2026; Lille are unbeaten at home in 5 matches, while Lyon have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Lille at home
5 played · 3W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 0.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 30 Oct 2026 · Lens · 1–0 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Brest · 1–1 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Le Havre · 1–0 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Troyes · 2–0 (W)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 2–2 (D)
Lyon away
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.6 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 8 Nov 2026 · Brest · 0–2 (L)
- 26 Oct 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 0–2 (L)
- 9 Oct 2026 · Lens · 1–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Paris FC · 0–0 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Toulouse · 2–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Lille vs Lyon: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44.5%Under 55.5%
- Both teams score
- 49.6%No 50.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.40 – 1.05Total 2.45 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 35% · 25%Lille · Lyon
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.3%), but more scorelines end in Lille winning, so that is the most likely result (44.4%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70.9% | 29.1% |
| 2.5 | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| 3.5 | 23.3% | 76.7% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Lille to score 1.40 goals and Lyon 1.05. Its ratings have Lille scoring at 1.10 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.70 times, against 1.23 and 0.85 for Lyon. Full methodology.
Questions about Lille vs Lyon
Who is the favourite in Lille vs Lyon?
Our model's most likely result is Lille win at 44.4%. Full probabilities: Lille 44.4%, draw 27.9%, Lyon 27.7%.
What is the most likely score in Lille vs Lyon?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.2%. The model expects 1.40 goals for Lille and 1.05 for Lyon.
Will Lille vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 44.5% and both teams to score 49.6%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,197
- Model version
- dc-v4-a0fb56f35a20
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Ligue 1 season outlook →