Ligue 1 · Gameweek 11
Nice vs Paris Saint-Germain Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Paris Saint-Germain 56.8%
Ligue 1 online record: 20 of 36 most likely results correct (56%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/36 (47%). See every prediction ›
Nice vs Paris Saint-Germain: prediction analysis
Nice are 6th on 17 points after 10 matches; Paris Saint-Germain are 1st on 23. In 41 Ligue 1 meetings since 2005-06, Nice won 13, Paris Saint-Germain won 21 and 7 were drawn. They last met on 21 Mar 2026: Nice 0–4 Paris Saint-Germain. In their last 5 league matches Nice won 4 and Paris Saint-Germain won 5.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Nice at home
5 played · 3W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 30 Oct 2026 · Rennes · 5–2 (W)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Strasbourg · 2–1 (W)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Lille · 2–1 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Le Mans · 1–1 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Lorient · 0–0 (D)
Paris Saint-Germain away
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.6 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 30 Oct 2026 · Le Havre · 5–1 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Strasbourg · 3–1 (W)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Marseille · 2–1 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Brest · 1–0 (W)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Lille · 2–2 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Nice vs Paris Saint-Germain: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57.6%Under 42.4%
- Both teams score
- 56.7%No 43.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.07 – 1.93Total 3.00 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 15% · 34%Nice · Paris Saint-Germain
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (10.8%), but more scorelines end in Paris Saint-Germain winning, so that is the most likely result (56.8%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.5% | 19.5% |
| 2.5 | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| 3.5 | 35.2% | 64.8% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Nice to score 1.07 goals and Paris Saint-Germain 1.93. Its ratings have Nice scoring at 1.04 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.94 times, against 1.68 and 0.69 for Paris Saint-Germain. Full methodology.
Questions about Nice vs Paris Saint-Germain
Who is the favourite in Nice vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Our model's most likely result is Paris Saint-Germain win at 56.8%. Full probabilities: Nice 20.3%, draw 22.9%, Paris Saint-Germain 56.8%.
What is the most likely score in Nice vs Paris Saint-Germain?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 10.8%. The model expects 1.07 goals for Nice and 1.93 for Paris Saint-Germain.
Will Nice vs Paris Saint-Germain have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 57.6% and both teams to score 56.7%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,197
- Model version
- dc-v4-5bc9d12f03c4
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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