Ligue 1 · Gameweek 11
Lorient vs Rennes Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Rennes 38.0%
Ligue 1 online record: 20 of 36 most likely results correct (56%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/36 (47%). See every prediction ›
Lorient vs Rennes: prediction analysis
Lorient are 10th with 15 points, while Rennes are 8th with 16 points. Lorient’s recent form is WLDWW, compared with Rennes’ LLWLW. Across 32 meetings, Rennes have 14 wins to Lorient’s 11, with 7 draws; Rennes won the last meeting 2-0 on 24 Jan 2026. Lorient have won 2 of 5 at home, while Rennes have won 1 of 4 away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Lorient at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 2 Nov 2026 · Brest · 0–2 (L)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Monaco · 1–0 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Paris FC · 1–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Toulouse · 2–2 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Troyes · 1–2 (L)
Rennes away
4 played · 1W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 3.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 30 Oct 2026 · Nice · 2–5 (L)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Paris FC · 3–4 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Lyon · 0–4 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Angers · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Lorient vs Rennes: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58.1%Under 41.9%
- Both teams score
- 61.1%No 38.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.49 – 1.52Total 3.02 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 22% · 22%Lorient · Rennes
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.6%), but more scorelines end in Rennes winning, so that is the most likely result (38.0%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.8% | 19.2% |
| 2.5 | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 3.5 | 35.7% | 64.3% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Lorient to score 1.49 goals and Rennes 1.52. Its ratings have Lorient scoring at 0.96 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.94 times, against 1.32 and 1.04 for Rennes. Full methodology.
Questions about Lorient vs Rennes
Who is the favourite in Lorient vs Rennes?
Our model's most likely result is Rennes win at 38.0%. Full probabilities: Lorient 36.7%, draw 25.2%, Rennes 38.0%.
What is the most likely score in Lorient vs Rennes?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.6%. The model expects 1.49 goals for Lorient and 1.52 for Rennes.
Will Lorient vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 58.1% and both teams to score 61.1%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,197
- Model version
- dc-v4-a0fb56f35a20
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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