Ligue 1 · Gameweek 11
Marseille vs Le Mans Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Marseille 66.8%
Ligue 1 online record: 20 of 36 most likely results correct (56%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/36 (47%). See every prediction ›
Marseille vs Le Mans: prediction analysis
Marseille are 4th in Ligue 1 with 18 points, while Le Mans are 15th with 8 points. Marseille have won their last 5 matches, whereas Le Mans have drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5. Marseille have 4 wins, Le Mans 2 and there have been 4 draws in 10 meetings. Marseille won the last meeting 2-1 on 20 Jan 2010.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Marseille at home
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.6 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Toulouse · 2–0 (W)
- 25 Oct 2026 · Le Havre · 4–3 (W)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 1–2 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Paris FC · 2–3 (L)
- 21 Aug 2026 · Strasbourg · 4–0 (W)
Le Mans away
5 played · 0W · 2D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Troyes · 0–2 (L)
- 25 Oct 2026 · Auxerre · 1–1 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 1–3 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Nice · 1–1 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Rennes · 2–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Marseille vs Le Mans: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67.7%Under 32.3%
- Both teams score
- 60.1%No 39.9%
- Predicted goals
- 2.42 – 1.07Total 3.49 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 34% · 9%Marseille · Le Mans
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 2–1, happens only 9.6% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86.6% | 13.4% |
| 2.5 | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| 3.5 | 46.1% | 53.9% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Marseille to score 2.42 goals and Le Mans 1.07. Its ratings have Marseille scoring at 1.41 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.92 times, against 0.95 and 1.15 for Le Mans. Full methodology.
Questions about Marseille vs Le Mans
Who is the favourite in Marseille vs Le Mans?
Our model's most likely result is Marseille win at 66.8%. Full probabilities: Marseille 66.8%, draw 18.5%, Le Mans 14.7%.
What is the most likely score in Marseille vs Le Mans?
2–1 is the single most likely score at 9.6%. The model expects 2.42 goals for Marseille and 1.07 for Le Mans.
Will Marseille vs Le Mans have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 67.7% and both teams to score 60.1%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,197
- Model version
- dc-v4-5bc9d12f03c4
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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