Ligue 1 · Gameweek 12
Brest vs Paris FC Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Brest 37.9%
Ligue 1 online record: 20 of 36 most likely results correct (56%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/36 (47%). See every prediction ›
Brest vs Paris FC: prediction analysis
Brest are ninth in Ligue 1 with 15 points, while Paris FC are third with 20 points. Both teams have won 3 of their last 5 matches. Paris FC have won both previous meetings, including a 4-0 victory on 3 May 2026. Both sides have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their five recorded home or away matches.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Brest at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 8 Nov 2026 · Lyon · 2–0 (W)
- 23 Oct 2026 · Nice · 1–2 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Angers · 5–1 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 0–1 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Toulouse · 2–2 (D)
Paris FC away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 7 Nov 2026 · Auxerre · 1–0 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Lens · 1–2 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Lorient · 0–1 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Marseille · 3–2 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Troyes · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Brest vs Paris FC: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53.9%Under 46.1%
- Both teams score
- 57.9%No 42.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.44 – 1.40Total 2.84 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 25% · 24%Brest · Paris FC
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.3%), but more scorelines end in Brest winning, so that is the most likely result (37.9%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.0% | 22.0% |
| 2.5 | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| 3.5 | 31.6% | 68.4% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Brest to score 1.44 goals and Paris FC 1.40. Its ratings have Brest scoring at 1.10 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 1.01 times, against 1.13 and 0.88 for Paris FC. Full methodology.
Questions about Brest vs Paris FC
Who is the favourite in Brest vs Paris FC?
Our model's most likely result is Brest win at 37.9%. Full probabilities: Brest 37.9%, draw 26.2%, Paris FC 36.0%.
What is the most likely score in Brest vs Paris FC?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.3%. The model expects 1.44 goals for Brest and 1.40 for Paris FC.
Will Brest vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 53.9% and both teams to score 57.9%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-13
- Matches used
- 4,197
- Model version
- dc-v4-f7c2a5e39179
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Ligue 1 season outlook →