Premier League · Gameweek 7
Everton vs Chelsea
Odds from leovegas. “Our fair odds” are the odds our model's chance implies, with no bookmaker margin. “Bookmaker chance” is the chance the odds imply once the margin is removed. The coloured chip is our chance minus the bookmaker chance, in percentage points. A gap is not a betting tip.
Our model makes Chelsea 36.2% favourites at Everton; the market has 40.7%. Our model is more bullish on Everton than the market.
Match preview
Everton are 7th on 9 points after 5 matches; Chelsea are 10th on 7. In 42 Premier League meetings since 2005-06, Everton won 11, Chelsea won 18 and 13 were drawn. They last met on 21 Mar 2026: Everton 3–0 Chelsea. In their last 5 league matches Everton won 2 and Chelsea won 2.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47.5%Under 52.5%
- Both teams score
- 53.4%No 46.6%
- Expected goals
- 1.28 – 1.30Total 2.57
- Clean sheet
- 27% · 28%Everton · Chelsea
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.8% | 26.2% | 1.36 | 3.81 |
| 2.5 | 47.5% | 52.5% | 2.11 | 1.90 |
| 3.5 | 25.8% | 74.2% | 3.87 | 1.35 |
Regular time only. Expected goals are averages of modelled scorelines, not shot-based xG. Goal probabilities come from the same score grid as the result probabilities and have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›How the probabilities are made
The probabilities compare modelled home, draw and away outcomes with market probabilities. The model does not use injuries. Expected goals are 1.32 for Everton and 1.29 for Chelsea.
Questions about Everton vs Chelsea
Who is the favourite in Everton vs Chelsea?
Our model's most likely result is Chelsea win at 36.2%. Full probabilities: Everton 35.2%, draw 28.6%, Chelsea 36.2%. De-vigged market odds give 40.7%.
What is the most likely score in Everton vs Chelsea?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.6%. The model expects 1.28 goals for Everton and 1.30 for Chelsea.
Will Everton vs Chelsea have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 47.5% and both teams to score 53.4%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. A gap between the model and the market is not evidence of a betting edge. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-05
- Matches used
- 4540
- Odds checked
- 5 Oct 2026, 01:57 UTC
- Model version
- dc-v4-f7f29581a715
- Data source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.