Premier League · Gameweek 7
Fulham vs Hull City
Odds from leovegas. “Our fair odds” are the odds our model's chance implies, with no bookmaker margin. “Bookmaker chance” is the chance the odds imply once the margin is removed. The coloured chip is our chance minus the bookmaker chance, in percentage points. A gap is not a betting tip.
Our model makes Fulham 39.9% favourites against Hull City; the market has 56.2%. Our model is less bullish on Fulham than the market.
Match preview
Fulham are 19th on 2 points after 5 matches; Hull City are 8th on 8. In 6 Premier League meetings since 2008-09, Fulham won 1, Hull City won 4 and 1 was drawn. They last met on 26 Apr 2014: Fulham 2–2 Hull City. In their last 5 league matches Fulham won 0 and Hull City won 2.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40.6%Under 59.4%
- Both teams score
- 47.6%No 52.4%
- Expected goals
- 1.26 – 1.05Total 2.31
- Clean sheet
- 35% · 28%Fulham · Hull City
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68.2% | 31.8% | 1.47 | 3.14 |
| 2.5 | 40.6% | 59.4% | 2.46 | 1.68 |
| 3.5 | 20.3% | 79.8% | 4.94 | 1.25 |
Regular time only. Expected goals are averages of modelled scorelines, not shot-based xG. Goal probabilities come from the same score grid as the result probabilities and have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
How the probabilities are made
The probabilities compare the model's outcome estimates with market probabilities. The model does not use injuries. Its expected goals are 1.24 for Fulham and 1.06 for Hull City, with 1-1 the top score at 14.5%.
Questions about Fulham vs Hull City
Who is the favourite in Fulham vs Hull City?
Our model's most likely result is Fulham win at 39.9%. Full probabilities: Fulham 39.9%, draw 30.2%, Hull City 29.9%. De-vigged market odds give 56.2%.
What is the most likely score in Fulham vs Hull City?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 14.2%. The model expects 1.26 goals for Fulham and 1.05 for Hull City.
Will Fulham vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 40.6% and both teams to score 47.6%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. A gap between the model and the market is not evidence of a betting edge. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-05
- Matches used
- 4540
- Odds checked
- 5 Oct 2026, 01:57 UTC
- Model version
- dc-v4-f7f29581a715
- Data source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.