La Liga · Gameweek 13
Athletic Club vs Espanyol Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Athletic Club 51.6%
La Liga online record: 26 of 41 most likely results correct (63%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/41 (41%). Athletic Club: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Athletic Club vs Espanyol: prediction analysis
Athletic Club are 7th on 16 points after 11 matches; Espanyol are 13th on 12. In 38 La Liga meetings since 2005-06, Athletic Club won 11, Espanyol won 16 and 11 were drawn. They last met on 13 May 2026: Espanyol 2–0 Athletic Club. In their last 5 league matches Athletic Club won 2 and Espanyol won 1.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Athletic Club at home
5 played · 3W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 0.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Real Sociedad · 2–1 (W)
- 25 Oct 2026 · Getafe · 4–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Alaves · 0–0 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Elche · 1–1 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Atletico Madrid · 3–0 (W)
Espanyol away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 30 Oct 2026 · Villarreal · 1–0 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Racing Santander · 1–2 (L)
- 9 Oct 2026 · Malaga · 1–1 (D)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Rayo Vallecano · 1–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Osasuna · 2–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Athletic Club vs Espanyol: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41.4%Under 58.6%
- Both teams score
- 44.9%No 55.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.49 – 0.85Total 2.34 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 43% · 23%Athletic Club · Espanyol
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 1–0, happens only 13.9% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68.3% | 31.7% |
| 2.5 | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| 3.5 | 20.9% | 79.1% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Athletic Club to score 1.49 goals and Espanyol 0.85. Its ratings have Athletic Club scoring at 1.04 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.85 times, against 0.90 and 0.97 for Espanyol. Full methodology.
Questions about Athletic Club vs Espanyol
Who is the favourite in Athletic Club vs Espanyol?
Our model's most likely result is Athletic Club win at 51.6%. Full probabilities: Athletic Club 51.6%, draw 27.3%, Espanyol 21.1%.
What is the most likely score in Athletic Club vs Espanyol?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 13.9%. The model expects 1.49 goals for Athletic Club and 0.85 for Espanyol.
Will Athletic Club vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 41.4% and both teams to score 44.9%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,569
- Model version
- dc-v4-0ed24532093f
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the La Liga season outlook →