La Liga · Gameweek 13
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Rayo Vallecano 45.3%
La Liga online record: 26 of 41 most likely results correct (63%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/41 (41%). See every prediction ›
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia: prediction analysis
Rayo Vallecano are 14th in La Liga with 12 points, while Valencia are 19th with 9 points. Both teams have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches. Across 22 meetings, Valencia have 7 wins, Rayo Vallecano have 5 and there have been 10 draws. The last meeting ended Valencia 1-1 Rayo Vallecano on 14 May 2026.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Rayo Vallecano at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Celta Vigo · 3–0 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Elche · 0–3 (L)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Espanyol · 2–1 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Racing Santander · 3–2 (W)
- 20 Aug 2026 · Alaves · 1–1 (D)
Valencia away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Elche · 1–0 (W)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Racing Santander · 2–2 (D)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Alaves · 1–0 (W)
- 11 Sept 2026 · Sevilla · 0–1 (L)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Deportivo La Coruna · 1–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39.4%Under 60.6%
- Both teams score
- 45.1%No 54.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.33 – 0.93Total 2.26 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 39% · 27%Rayo Vallecano · Valencia
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.4%), but more scorelines end in Rayo Vallecano winning, so that is the most likely result (45.3%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66.5% | 33.5% |
| 2.5 | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| 3.5 | 19.3% | 80.7% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Rayo Vallecano to score 1.33 goals and Valencia 0.93. Its ratings have Rayo Vallecano scoring at 0.91 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.94 times, against 0.90 and 0.99 for Valencia. Full methodology.
Questions about Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia
Who is the favourite in Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
Our model's most likely result is Rayo Vallecano win at 45.3%. Full probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 45.3%, draw 28.9%, Valencia 25.8%.
What is the most likely score in Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.4%. The model expects 1.33 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.93 for Valencia.
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 39.4% and both teams to score 45.1%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-11
- Matches used
- 4,569
- Model version
- dc-v4-a2558ef6d63c
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the La Liga season outlook →