La Liga · Gameweek 13
Barcelona vs Villarreal Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Barcelona 72.6%
La Liga online record: 26 of 41 most likely results correct (63%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/41 (41%). See every prediction ›
Barcelona vs Villarreal: prediction analysis
Barcelona lead La Liga with 33 points from 12 matches, while Villarreal are eighth with 15 points. Barcelona's recent form is WWLWW, compared with Villarreal's WLWDL. Barcelona have won 28 of 40 meetings, including a 4-1 victory in the last meeting on 28 Feb 2026. At home, Barcelona have five wins and one loss from six; Villarreal have two wins, two draws and two losses away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Barcelona at home
5 played · 4W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 4.4 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Alaves · 6–1 (W)
- 25 Oct 2026 · Real Madrid · 1–2 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Getafe · 3–0 (W)
- 16 Sept 2026 · Racing Santander · 7–2 (W)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Rayo Vallecano · 5–2 (W)
Villarreal away
4 played · 2W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Valencia · 2–1 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Real Madrid · 0–1 (L)
- 17 Sept 2026 · Malaga · 3–1 (W)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Alaves · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Barcelona vs Villarreal: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 76.8%Under 23.2%
- Both teams score
- 65.0%No 35.0%
- Predicted goals
- 2.88 – 1.16Total 4.04 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 31% · 6%Barcelona · Villarreal
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 2–1, happens only 8.5% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91.4% | 8.6% |
| 2.5 | 76.8% | 23.2% |
| 3.5 | 57.5% | 42.5% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Barcelona to score 2.88 goals and Villarreal 1.16. Its ratings have Barcelona scoring at 2.10 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.76 times, against 1.38 and 0.93 for Villarreal. Full methodology.
Questions about Barcelona vs Villarreal
Who is the favourite in Barcelona vs Villarreal?
Our model's most likely result is Barcelona win at 72.6%. Full probabilities: Barcelona 72.6%, draw 15.2%, Villarreal 12.2%.
What is the most likely score in Barcelona vs Villarreal?
2–1 is the single most likely score at 8.5%. The model expects 2.88 goals for Barcelona and 1.16 for Villarreal.
Will Barcelona vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 76.8% and both teams to score 65.0%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,569
- Model version
- dc-v4-0ed24532093f
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the La Liga season outlook →