La Liga · Gameweek 13
Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Real Sociedad 45.3%
La Liga online record: 26 of 41 most likely results correct (63%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/41 (41%). See every prediction ›
Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad: prediction analysis
Racing Santander are 10th with 14 points from 12 matches, while Real Sociedad are fifth with 22 points. Racing Santander's recent form is WLWLD, compared with Real Sociedad's WLWWW. Racing Santander have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 1 of 6 at home; Real Sociedad have won 3 and lost 3 of 6 away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Racing Santander at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Real Madrid · 0–3 (L)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Espanyol · 2–1 (W)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Valencia · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Alaves · 2–1 (W)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Elche · 3–2 (W)
Real Sociedad away
4 played · 3W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 3.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Athletic Club · 1–2 (L)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Malaga · 5–2 (W)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Valencia · 3–2 (W)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Elche · 3–2 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 70.3%Under 29.8%
- Both teams score
- 70.0%No 30.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.66 – 1.97Total 3.63 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 14% · 19%Racing Santander · Real Sociedad
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (9.0%), but more scorelines end in Real Sociedad winning, so that is the most likely result (45.3%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88.0% | 11.9% |
| 2.5 | 70.3% | 29.8% |
| 3.5 | 49.1% | 50.9% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Racing Santander to score 1.66 goals and Real Sociedad 1.97. Its ratings have Racing Santander scoring at 1.10 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 1.54 times, against 1.16 and 1.03 for Real Sociedad. Full methodology.
Questions about Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad
Who is the favourite in Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad?
Our model's most likely result is Real Sociedad win at 45.3%. Full probabilities: Racing Santander 32.5%, draw 22.2%, Real Sociedad 45.3%.
What is the most likely score in Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 9.0%. The model expects 1.66 goals for Racing Santander and 1.97 for Real Sociedad.
Will Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 70.2% and both teams to score 70.0%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,569
- Model version
- dc-v4-b5b82eb9628e
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the La Liga season outlook →