La Liga · Gameweek 13
Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Real Madrid 70.8%
La Liga online record: 26 of 41 most likely results correct (63%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/41 (41%). See every prediction ›
Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo: prediction analysis
Real Madrid are 2nd with 30 points, while Celta Vigo are 11th with 13 points. Real Madrid have won their last 5 matches, while Celta Vigo's last 5 brought 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss. Real Madrid have won 26 of 32 meetings, including a 2-1 victory in the last meeting. Real Madrid have won all 5 at home, while Celta Vigo have drawn 4 of 5 away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Real Madrid at home
4 played · 4W · 0D · 0L
Goals per match: 3.3 scored · 0.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Oct 2026 · Sevilla · 4–1 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Villarreal · 1–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Rayo Vallecano · 4–1 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Malaga · 4–0 (W)
Celta Vigo away
4 played · 0W · 3D · 1L
Goals per match: 0.3 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Rayo Vallecano · 0–3 (L)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Elche · 0–0 (D)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Getafe · 1–1 (D)
- 3 Sept 2026 · Real Sociedad · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58.0%Under 42.0%
- Both teams score
- 48.2%No 51.8%
- Predicted goals
- 2.25 – 0.77Total 3.02 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 47% · 11%Real Madrid · Celta Vigo
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 2–0, happens only 12.4% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.7% | 19.4% |
| 2.5 | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| 3.5 | 35.6% | 64.3% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Real Madrid to score 2.25 goals and Celta Vigo 0.77. Its ratings have Real Madrid scoring at 1.67 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.68 times, against 1.02 and 0.92 for Celta Vigo. Full methodology.
Questions about Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo
Who is the favourite in Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo?
Our model's most likely result is Real Madrid win at 70.8%. Full probabilities: Real Madrid 70.8%, draw 18.4%, Celta Vigo 10.8%.
What is the most likely score in Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo?
2–0 is the single most likely score at 12.4%. The model expects 2.25 goals for Real Madrid and 0.77 for Celta Vigo.
Will Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 58.0% and both teams to score 48.2%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,569
- Model version
- dc-v4-0ed24532093f
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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