La Liga · Gameweek 13
Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Alaves 39.7%
La Liga online record: 26 of 41 most likely results correct (63%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/41 (41%). See every prediction ›
Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna: prediction analysis
Alaves are 12th on 13 points after 12 matches; Deportivo La Coruna are 9th on 15. In their last 5 league matches Alaves won 0 and Deportivo La Coruna won 1.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Alaves at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 23 Oct 2026 · Malaga · 1–1 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Atletico Madrid · 1–2 (L)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Valencia · 0–1 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Osasuna · 5–2 (W)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Villarreal · 1–0 (W)
Deportivo La Coruna away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 7 Nov 2026 · Espanyol · 0–0 (D)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Atletico Madrid · 0–1 (L)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Real Sociedad · 2–3 (L)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Getafe · 1–1 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Villarreal · 3–2 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40.3%Under 59.7%
- Both teams score
- 46.9%No 53.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.24 – 1.06Total 2.30 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 35% · 29%Alaves · Deportivo La Coruna
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.7%), but more scorelines end in Alaves winning, so that is the most likely result (39.7%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| 2.5 | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| 3.5 | 20.0% | 80.0% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Alaves to score 1.24 goals and Deportivo La Coruna 1.06. Its ratings have Alaves scoring at 0.92 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.99 times, against 0.97 and 0.92 for Deportivo La Coruna. Full methodology.
Questions about Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna
Who is the favourite in Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Our model's most likely result is Alaves win at 39.7%. Full probabilities: Alaves 39.7%, draw 29.2%, Deportivo La Coruna 31.0%.
What is the most likely score in Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.7%. The model expects 1.24 goals for Alaves and 1.06 for Deportivo La Coruna.
Will Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 40.3% and both teams to score 46.9%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,569
- Model version
- dc-v4-0ed24532093f
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the La Liga season outlook →