La Liga · Gameweek 13
Osasuna vs Malaga Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Osasuna 56.3%
La Liga online record: 26 of 41 most likely results correct (63%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/41 (41%). See every prediction ›
Osasuna vs Malaga: prediction analysis
Osasuna are 16th on 12 points after 12 matches; Malaga are 20th on 5. In their last 5 league matches Osasuna won 1 and Malaga won 0.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Osasuna at home
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 7 Nov 2026 · Athletic Club · 1–1 (D)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Racing Santander · 2–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Rayo Vallecano · 1–1 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Espanyol · 0–2 (L)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Getafe · 1–0 (W)
Malaga away
5 played · 0W · 2D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.6 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Real Betis · 1–2 (L)
- 23 Oct 2026 · Alaves · 1–1 (D)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Getafe · 0–1 (L)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Celta Vigo · 1–1 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Real Madrid · 0–4 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Osasuna vs Malaga: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47.5%Under 52.5%
- Both teams score
- 48.1%No 51.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.70 – 0.88Total 2.57 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 42% · 18%Osasuna · Malaga
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 1–0, happens only 12.5% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.2% | 26.8% |
| 2.5 | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| 3.5 | 25.9% | 74.2% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Osasuna to score 1.70 goals and Malaga 0.88. Its ratings have Osasuna scoring at 0.94 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 1.04 times, against 0.76 and 1.23 for Malaga. Full methodology.
Questions about Osasuna vs Malaga
Who is the favourite in Osasuna vs Malaga?
Our model's most likely result is Osasuna win at 56.3%. Full probabilities: Osasuna 56.3%, draw 24.8%, Malaga 18.9%.
What is the most likely score in Osasuna vs Malaga?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 12.5%. The model expects 1.70 goals for Osasuna and 0.88 for Malaga.
Will Osasuna vs Malaga have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 47.5% and both teams to score 48.1%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,569
- Model version
- dc-v4-b5b82eb9628e
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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