La Liga · Gameweek 13
Getafe vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Atletico Madrid 46.8%
La Liga online record: 26 of 41 most likely results correct (63%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/41 (41%). See every prediction ›
Getafe vs Atletico Madrid: prediction analysis
Getafe are 15th on 12 points after 12 matches, with form of LWLDL, while Atletico Madrid are 3rd on 28 points and have won 4 of their last 5. Getafe are unbeaten at home with 3 wins and 3 draws from 6, while Atletico Madrid have 5 wins and 1 loss away. Atletico Madrid lead the head-to-head record with 28 wins from 40 meetings, including a 1-0 win in the last meeting on 14 Mar 2026.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Getafe at home
5 played · 2W · 3D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Sevilla · 3–1 (W)
- 19 Oct 2026 · Rayo Vallecano · 1–1 (D)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Malaga · 1–0 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Deportivo La Coruna · 1–1 (D)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Celta Vigo · 1–1 (D)
Atletico Madrid away
5 played · 4W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Levante · 2–0 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Espanyol · 1–0 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Alaves · 2–1 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Real Sociedad · 3–0 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Athletic Club · 0–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Getafe vs Atletico Madrid: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 33.4%Under 66.6%
- Both teams score
- 39.4%No 60.6%
- Predicted goals
- 0.79 – 1.25Total 2.04 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 29% · 45%Getafe · Atletico Madrid
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 0–1, happens only 15.8% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| 2.5 | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| 3.5 | 15.0% | 85.0% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Getafe to score 0.79 goals and Atletico Madrid 1.25. Its ratings have Getafe scoring at 0.72 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.82 times, against 1.37 and 0.75 for Atletico Madrid. Full methodology.
Questions about Getafe vs Atletico Madrid
Who is the favourite in Getafe vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model's most likely result is Atletico Madrid win at 46.8%. Full probabilities: Getafe 22.9%, draw 30.3%, Atletico Madrid 46.8%.
What is the most likely score in Getafe vs Atletico Madrid?
0–1 is the single most likely score at 15.8%. The model expects 0.79 goals for Getafe and 1.25 for Atletico Madrid.
Will Getafe vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 33.4% and both teams to score 39.4%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-11
- Matches used
- 4,569
- Model version
- dc-v4-41d2a84a90cf
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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