La Liga · Gameweek 13
Levante vs Elche Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Levante 47.2%
La Liga online record: 26 of 41 most likely results correct (63%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/41 (41%). Levante: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Levante vs Elche: prediction analysis
Levante are 17th in La Liga with 11 points, while Elche are 18th with 10 points. Both teams have one win, two draws and two losses in their last 5 matches. The head-to-head record is level at 3 wins each, with 4 draws across 10 meetings. Levante won the last meeting 3-2 on 23 Jan 2026.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Levante at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.6 scored · 2.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Atletico Madrid · 0–2 (L)
- 21 Oct 2026 · Athletic Club · 3–1 (W)
- 12 Oct 2026 · Sevilla · 3–3 (D)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Barcelona · 2–4 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Real Betis · 5–2 (W)
Elche away
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Rayo Vallecano · 3–0 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Villarreal · 0–0 (D)
- 18 Sept 2026 · Espanyol · 3–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Athletic Club · 1–1 (D)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Racing Santander · 2–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Levante vs Elche: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55.8%Under 44.3%
- Both teams score
- 58.2%No 41.8%
- Predicted goals
- 1.68 – 1.24Total 2.91 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 29% · 19%Levante · Elche
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.7%), but more scorelines end in Levante winning, so that is the most likely result (47.2%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79.2% | 20.8% |
| 2.5 | 55.8% | 44.3% |
| 3.5 | 33.4% | 66.6% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Levante to score 1.68 goals and Elche 1.24. Its ratings have Levante scoring at 1.06 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 1.13 times, against 0.99 and 1.07 for Elche. Full methodology.
Questions about Levante vs Elche
Who is the favourite in Levante vs Elche?
Our model's most likely result is Levante win at 47.2%. Full probabilities: Levante 47.2%, draw 24.9%, Elche 27.9%.
What is the most likely score in Levante vs Elche?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.7%. The model expects 1.68 goals for Levante and 1.24 for Elche.
Will Levante vs Elche have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 55.8% and both teams to score 58.2%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,569
- Model version
- dc-v4-b5b82eb9628e
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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