La Liga · Gameweek 14
Levante vs Racing Santander Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Levante 60.1%
The model favours Levante although they are 17th and Racing Santander 10th. Its ratings come from results weighted by age, so a match from a year ago still counts half as much as last week's, and 12 games move the ratings less than they move the table. Playing at home also adds to Levante's chances.
La Liga online record: 26 of 41 most likely results correct (63%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/41 (41%). Levante: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Levante vs Racing Santander: prediction analysis
Levante are 17th in La Liga with 11 points from 12 matches, while Racing Santander are 10th with 14 points. Levante’s recent form is DLLWD across 5 matches; Racing Santander’s is WLWLD. At home, Levante have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 5 matches, while Racing Santander have 1 win and 5 losses from 6 away matches.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Levante at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.6 scored · 2.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Atletico Madrid · 0–2 (L)
- 21 Oct 2026 · Athletic Club · 3–1 (W)
- 12 Oct 2026 · Sevilla · 3–3 (D)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Barcelona · 2–4 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Real Betis · 5–2 (W)
Racing Santander away
5 played · 1W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 3.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 7 Nov 2026 · Malaga · 2–1 (W)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Osasuna · 0–2 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Celta Vigo · 0–5 (L)
- 16 Sept 2026 · Barcelona · 2–7 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Rayo Vallecano · 2–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Levante vs Racing Santander: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72.7%Under 27.3%
- Both teams score
- 68.1%No 31.9%
- Predicted goals
- 2.41 – 1.37Total 3.78 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 25% · 9%Levante · Racing Santander
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 2–1, happens only 9.1% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89.3% | 10.7% |
| 2.5 | 72.7% | 27.3% |
| 3.5 | 52.1% | 47.9% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Levante to score 2.41 goals and Racing Santander 1.37. Its ratings have Levante scoring at 1.06 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 1.13 times, against 1.10 and 1.54 for Racing Santander. Full methodology.
Questions about Levante vs Racing Santander
Who is the favourite in Levante vs Racing Santander?
Our model's most likely result is Levante win at 60.1%. Full probabilities: Levante 60.1%, draw 19.4%, Racing Santander 20.4%.
What is the most likely score in Levante vs Racing Santander?
2–1 is the single most likely score at 9.1%. The model expects 2.41 goals for Levante and 1.37 for Racing Santander.
Will Levante vs Racing Santander have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 72.7% and both teams to score 68.1%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-13
- Matches used
- 4,569
- Model version
- dc-v4-148a0fe83c4b
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the La Liga season outlook →