Bundesliga · Gameweek 9 · Archived pre-match analysis
Hamburg 3–1 Borussia Monchengladbach
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Hamburg 39.1%
Bundesliga online record: 21 of 36 most likely results correct (58%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 18/36 (50%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Hamburg a 39.1% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Hamburg. The result matched that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 6 Nov 2026, 17:06 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Hamburg are 15th on 9 points after 8 matches; Borussia Monchengladbach are 18th on 4. In 26 Bundesliga meetings since 2005-06, Hamburg won 9, Borussia Monchengladbach won 8 and 9 were drawn. They last met on 17 Jan 2026: Hamburg 0–0 Borussia Monchengladbach. In their last 5 league matches Hamburg won 3 and Borussia Monchengladbach won 1.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Hamburg at home
3 played · 2W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Stuttgart · 1–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Fc Cologne · 2–1 (W)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Mainz · 0–5 (L)
Borussia Monchengladbach away
4 played · 1W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 3.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 23 Oct 2026 · Stuttgart · 3–2 (W)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Fc Cologne · 1–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Freiburg · 0–5 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · RB Leipzig · 0–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Hamburg vs Borussia Monchengladbach: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54.6%Under 45.4%
- Both teams score
- 58.8%No 41.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.49 – 1.38Total 2.87 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 25% · 23%Hamburg · Borussia Monchengladbach
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.6%), but more scorelines end in Hamburg winning, so that is the most likely result (39.1%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.8% | 21.1% |
| 2.5 | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| 3.5 | 32.3% | 67.7% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Hamburg to score 1.49 goals and Borussia Monchengladbach 1.38. Its ratings have Hamburg scoring at 0.83 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 1.06 times, against 0.99 and 1.08 for Borussia Monchengladbach. Full methodology.
Questions about Hamburg vs Borussia Monchengladbach
What was the Hamburg vs Borussia Monchengladbach result?
Hamburg 3–1 Borussia Monchengladbach at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Hamburg vs Borussia Monchengladbach?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-05T15:50:34.071711+00:00, before kickoff, gave Hamburg 39.1%, a draw 26.7% and Borussia Monchengladbach 34.3%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Hamburg vs Borussia Monchengladbach?
The forecast published at 2026-11-06T17:06:03.764366+00:00 estimated 1.49 goals for Hamburg and 1.38 for Borussia Monchengladbach (2.87 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (12.6%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-06
- Matches used
- 3,645
- Model version
- dc-v4-f9beb5e918dd
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Bundesliga season outlook →