Bundesliga · Gameweek 9 · Archived pre-match analysis
RB Leipzig 5–2 Augsburg
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: RB Leipzig 64.1%
Bundesliga online record: 21 of 36 most likely results correct (58%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 18/36 (50%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave RB Leipzig a 64.1% probability. The highest-probability outcome was RB Leipzig. The result matched that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 10:05 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
RB Leipzig are fourth in the Bundesliga with 15 points, while Augsburg are 11th with 9 points. Leipzig have won 3 of their last 5, compared with Augsburg’s 2 draws and 3 losses. Leipzig lead the head-to-head record with 12 wins to Augsburg’s 1 across 20 meetings, and won the last meeting 2-1 on 7 Mar 2026. Leipzig have won all 4 home matches, while Augsburg have won 1 of 3 away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
RB Leipzig at home
4 played · 4W · 0D · 0L
Goals per match: 4.5 scored · 0.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Elversberg · 4–0 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 6–0 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Hamburg · 5–0 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Borussia Monchengladbach · 3–0 (W)
Augsburg away
4 played · 1W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 2.3 scored · 3.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Elversberg · 3–4 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Werder Bremen · 2–3 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 4–1 (W)
- 16 May 2026 · Union Berlin · 0–4 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
RB Leipzig vs Augsburg: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65.3%Under 34.7%
- Both teams score
- 59.7%No 40.3%
- Predicted goals
- 2.29 – 1.07Total 3.36 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 34% · 10%RB Leipzig · Augsburg
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 2–1, happens only 9.7% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85.5% | 14.5% |
| 2.5 | 65.3% | 34.7% |
| 3.5 | 43.3% | 56.7% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects RB Leipzig to score 2.29 goals and Augsburg 1.07. Its ratings have RB Leipzig scoring at 1.34 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.84 times, against 0.97 and 1.03 for Augsburg. Full methodology.
Questions about RB Leipzig vs Augsburg
What was the RB Leipzig vs Augsburg result?
RB Leipzig 5–2 Augsburg at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for RB Leipzig vs Augsburg?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T12:58:13.789737+00:00, before kickoff, gave RB Leipzig 64.0%, a draw 20.1% and Augsburg 15.8%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for RB Leipzig vs Augsburg?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T10:05:13.570497+00:00 estimated 2.29 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.07 for Augsburg (3.36 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 2–1 (9.7%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 3,646
- Model version
- dc-v4-3ad8df6c0c2e
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Bundesliga season outlook →