Bundesliga · Gameweek 9 · Archived pre-match analysis
Borussia Dortmund 2–1 Elversberg
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Borussia Dortmund 66.0%
Bundesliga online record: 21 of 36 most likely results correct (58%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 18/36 (50%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Borussia Dortmund a 66.0% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Borussia Dortmund. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #1 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 10:05 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 18 points after 8 matches; Elversberg are 7th on 13. In their last 5 league matches Borussia Dortmund won 2 and Elversberg won 2.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Borussia Dortmund at home
4 played · 3W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 0.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 1–0 (W)
- 9 Oct 2026 · Werder Bremen · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Paderborn · 3–0 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Hamburg · 2–0 (W)
Elversberg away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · RB Leipzig · 0–4 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Union Berlin · 0–1 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Schalke · 0–0 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Borussia Monchengladbach · 4–3 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 71.8%Under 28.2%
- Both teams score
- 64.5%No 35.5%
- Predicted goals
- 2.53 – 1.19Total 3.72 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 31% · 8%Borussia Dortmund · Elversberg
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 2–1, happens only 9.2% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89.1% | 10.9% |
| 2.5 | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| 3.5 | 51.0% | 49.0% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Borussia Dortmund to score 2.53 goals and Elversberg 1.19. Its ratings have Borussia Dortmund scoring at 1.36 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.71 times, against 1.26 and 1.12 for Elversberg. Full methodology.
Questions about Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg
What was the Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg result?
Borussia Dortmund 2–1 Elversberg at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T12:58:13.789737+00:00, before kickoff, gave Borussia Dortmund 65.8%, a draw 18.6% and Elversberg 15.6%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T10:05:13.570497+00:00 estimated 2.53 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.19 for Elversberg (3.72 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 2–1 (9.2%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 3,646
- Model version
- dc-v4-3ad8df6c0c2e
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Bundesliga season outlook →