Bundesliga · Gameweek 9 · Archived pre-match analysis
Mainz 1–2 Bayern Munich
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Bayern Munich 67.4%
Bundesliga online record: 21 of 36 most likely results correct (58%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 18/36 (50%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Bayern Munich a 67.4% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Bayern Munich. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #1 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 10:05 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Mainz are 10th with 10 points after 8 matches, while Bayern Munich lead the Bundesliga with 18 points. Mainz’s recent form is LLWLW, compared with Bayern Munich’s DWWDW. Mainz have won 8 of 38 meetings, while Bayern Munich have won 26; Bayern Munich won the last meeting 4-3 on 25 Apr 2026. Mainz have 0 wins in 4 home matches, while Bayern Munich are unbeaten in 4 away matches.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Mainz at home
4 played · 0W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 2.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Werder Bremen · 2–3 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Bayer Leverkusen · 3–4 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 1–3 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Paderborn · 0–0 (D)
Bayern Munich away
4 played · 2W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Freiburg · 3–1 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Augsburg · 2–2 (D)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Elversberg · 2–1 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Schalke · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Mainz vs Bayern Munich: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 75.1%Under 24.9%
- Both teams score
- 66.8%No 33.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.25 – 2.68Total 3.93 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 7% · 29%Mainz · Bayern Munich
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 1–2, happens only 8.8% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90.8% | 9.2% |
| 2.5 | 75.1% | 24.9% |
| 3.5 | 55.2% | 44.8% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Mainz to score 1.25 goals and Bayern Munich 2.68. Its ratings have Mainz scoring at 1.03 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.97 times, against 2.10 and 0.73 for Bayern Munich. Full methodology.
Questions about Mainz vs Bayern Munich
What was the Mainz vs Bayern Munich result?
Mainz 1–2 Bayern Munich at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Mainz vs Bayern Munich?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T12:58:13.789737+00:00, before kickoff, gave Mainz 15.0%, a draw 17.5% and Bayern Munich 67.5%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Mainz vs Bayern Munich?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T10:05:13.570497+00:00 estimated 1.25 goals for Mainz and 2.68 for Bayern Munich (3.93 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–2 (8.8%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 3,646
- Model version
- dc-v4-3ad8df6c0c2e
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Bundesliga season outlook →